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The market expects only about a one-in-three chance of a 25 basis point rate cut this year; investors may face greater challenges next month.
ME News Report, April 15 (UTC+8), data shows that bond traders have slightly reduced their bets on the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates once this year after data indicated that gasoline prices rose due to the Iran war and U.S. March inflation accelerated. On Friday, the interest rate swap market pricing showed that the probability of the Fed cutting rates by 25 basis points this year is about one-third, with little change compared to before the data release. After the report was published, U.S. Treasuries edged lower, with yields across all maturities rising by two to three basis points. Tom di Galoma, Managing Director of Mischler Financial Group, said, “Today’s CPI data will not support bond prices because next month’s inflation report will bring more trouble for investors and the Fed.” (Source: Jin10)