Recently, I've seen a bunch of people watching large on-chain transfers and fluctuations in exchange hot and cold wallets, then repeatedly saying "Smart money is here"… Honestly, it's a bit funny and a bit frustrating. Just because money is moving doesn't mean the direction is correct; it might just be moved to a different drawer.

Don't be scared by terms like data availability, ordering, or finality. I'll focus on one main point: the transaction you see, is it "something everyone can access the same data for," or "just someone saw it first"; is it "ordered by who," or "really can't be reversed in the end." If you don't think these three things through, chasing wallets is basically chasing shadows. Anyway, I’m just watching the show now, but before acting, ask yourself: is this information verifiable, or just a convincing explanation? That's all for now.