1. Tonight (4.14, 8:30 PM) U.S. Federal Reserve results: 99% probability of no change

- CME Federal Reserve watch: keep the interest rate unchanged at 3.5%–3.75%: 99%
- Hike 25bp: 1%; rate cut: 0%

What truly affects the market is not the interest rate, but the tone in Powell’s speech (hawkish/dovish)

 

2. ETH/Crypto market: probability of falling > probability of rising (bearish)

Based on historical patterns + the current environment, there are three scenarios:

1. Neutral-to-hawkish (most likely, 70% probability)

- Signal: keep unchanged + emphasize that inflation is still high + rate cuts require more evidence + do not rule out another rate hike
- Market reaction: first a small pull up → then a rapid plunge → sideways weakening
- ETH: most likely down 3%–8%, retracing to $2,200–$2,150
- Reason: the market has already priced in “higher rates for longer”; without positive news, it’s negative news

2. Unexpectedly dovish (20% probability)

- Signal: keep unchanged + imply 1 rate cut within the year + inflation is controllable
- Reaction: rapid surge
- ETH: up 5%–10%, rallying toward $2,500–$2,600

3. Unexpectedly hawkish (10% probability)

- Signal: clearly no rate cuts + do not rule out rate hikes + inflation risks are rising
- Reaction: a direct, steep crash
- ETH: down 8%–15%, testing the $2,000 level

 

3. Conclusion (after 8:30 PM tonight)

- Short-term direction: bearish (down > up)
- Most likely script: small surge upward → pullback → down 3%–8%
- The line separating bulls and bears: - hold above $2,350 → slightly bullish
- Break below $2,200 → accelerate the decline#WCTC交易赛瓜分800万USDT