Market Analysis 2026.04.14

Market Sentiment

BTC rebounded strongly from yesterday’s 70,600 to 74,750, up 5.01%!
ETH surged along to 2,400, an increase of over 6%!

Last night, 146.8k traders were liquidated. Today, the bulls launched a strong counterattack, shifting market sentiment from extreme fear to neutral leaning bullish.

The US military blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is still fermenting. But the market has partially digested the negative news impact.

Altcoin season index rose from 33 to 41. Although it has not entered the altcoin season threshold (75 points), signs of capital rotation are beginning to appear!

BTC Analysis

Current Price: $74,750
Strong Support: 72,000-72,500 (yesterday’s resistance now support)
Key Resistance: 75,000-76,000
Breakout Resistance: 78,000-80,000

Pattern:
1-hour: Strong rebound, broke through yesterday’s high in one move, bullish momentum like a rainbow
4-hour: V-shaped reversal, broke through descending trendline, volume and price rising together
Daily: Recovered yesterday’s loss
Back in an uptrend channel, space above opening up

Volume: Increasing volume on the rise
Funds clearly flowing back
MACD: Bullish crossover formed
Bullish signal confirmed
RSI: 58
Entering neutral to slightly bullish zone
Not yet overbought

ETH Analysis

Current Price: $2,400
Strong Support: 2,300-2,350 (previous consolidation upper boundary)
Key Resistance: 2,500-2,600
Breakout Resistance: 2,700-2,800

Pattern:
1-hour: Following BTC rebound
Stronger momentum, more decisive breakout
4-hour: Broke through descending trendline
Stronger than BTC
Daily: Strong recovery
Rebound amplitude surpasses BTC

Volume: Significantly increased
ETH’s independent trend initiated
MACD: Bullish crossover formed
Bullish dominance
RSI: 55
Neutral to slightly bullish
ETH/BTC exchange rate: 0.032
ETH strengthening relative to BTC
ETH’s independent trend initiated

ETH Ecosystem Hotspots:
Layer 2: Arbitrum, Optimism TVL surging
Capital rotation evident
DeFi: Uniswap V4 testnet progressing smoothly
On-chain activity rising
NFT: Trading volume rebounding
But growth limited

Sector Rotation Forecast

AI Sector: Computing power demand continues to explode
Funds keep flowing in. Leaders: RENDER, FET, NEAR

RWA Sector: Real-world asset tokenization accelerates
Institutions actively deploying. Leaders: ONDO, LINK

Layer 2 Sector: Ethereum ecosystem expansion
User growth is obvious. Leaders: ZK, ARB, TIA

DeFi Sector: Aave V4 drives ecosystem revival
Funds flowing back clearly. Leaders: AAVE, UNI, SNX

Institutional Movements

Grayscale continues to increase holdings:
Asset tokenization sector (LINK, ONDO)—Long-term optimism
AI computing power sector (RENDER, FET)—Focused deployment

ETF Funds continue to flow in:
BTC ETF has seen 5 consecutive days of net inflow
Institutions are accumulating at lows
ETH ETF inflow this week reached $150 million
ETH’s independent trend initiated

Whale Movements:
On-chain whales added positions at yesterday’s lows
Exchange BTC holdings continue to decline
Long-term holders remain steadfast

Geopolitical Impact

US military blockade of the Strait of Hormuz still fermenting:
Crude oil prices retreat from highs
Safe-haven sentiment cools
Market gradually digests negative impact

Current Assessment:
Negative impact has been partially digested
Risks are not fully eliminated
Further developments should be watched

Risk Alerts

1. Geopolitical uncertainties remain
Control your positions
2. Rebound may be followed by a correction
Be cautious about chasing highs
3. Federal Reserve’s April 28-29 rate decision
Watch for rate cut expectations
4. Altcoin season index still below 75
Capital rotation is limited
5. Set stop-losses
Protect profits

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Mu Jing Xue Tu · 2026.04.14