Core Logic and Risk Warning

I. Core Bearish Logic

1. Geopolitical uncertainty: the third round of negotiations in Islamabad has failed to reach a framework agreement; the temporary ceasefire is about to expire; the risk of a restart of geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East is high; market risk-averse sentiment is rising; and risk assets are under pressure.
2. Macro liquidity pressure: U.S. CPI inflation data surged sharply; market expectations for a Fed rate cut are pushed back; the U.S. Dollar Index strengthens; and valuations of risk assets such as cryptocurrencies face pressure.
3. Technical structure weakening: after earlier spikes, Bitcoin and Ethereum face pressure and pull back; rebound momentum keeps fading; the downtrend is clear; and the support range below is well-defined.

II. Key Risk Warnings

1. Risk of unexpected positive developments from negotiations: if U.S.-Iran negotiations unexpectedly achieve an extension of the ceasefire or a framework agreement, market risk appetite may recover; Bitcoin and Ethereum may see violent rebounds; and that could lead to substantial losses on short positions (historical ceasefire news once triggered the liquidation of $427 million in short positions).
2. Risk of macro data reversal: if subsequent U.S. economic data shows marginal weakening, it may change market expectations for rate cuts and drive a rebound in risk assets.
3. Operational discipline requirements: strictly follow the trading principles of light positioning, building positions in batches, and using stop-losses; avoid going overweight against the trend; and guard against the risk of liquidation in extreme market conditions.

III. Additional Notes

In the original text, “715-700” and “2200-2145” are common industry shorthand, which actually correspond to $71,500–70,000 (BTC) and $2,200–2,145 (ETH), consistent with the current market price range.
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