$ETH Market View

Review the ETH short idea shared by the plaza on April 8: go short aggressively at 2250-2258, or wait and short again once price is in the 2296-2323 range for a more steady entry.

The aggressive entries came twice:
• First, after the needle-like move at 2270, the price dipped to 2165, with maximum potential exceeding 100 points;
• Second, after rebounding to the 2257 stage high, precisely catching the short opening position at that point; it fell as low as 2217, and the high also pulled back by 40 points;

Yesterday, even with the rally driven by developments in the news, it only just reached our steady short entry zone of 2296-2323, without breaking through the heavy pressure range. Currently, the price has successfully entered the first take-profit target range of 2197-2207.

Why, even though the short-term trend is clearly somewhat strong, do I still not go long?

But geopolitical market action is always pulse-like: when it rises fast, it falls even faster. After the sentiment cools off, ETH will quickly revert to the downward main trend. The so-called “geopolitical good news” is only a short-term splash that can’t blow away the bearish trend.

Combined with the previously mentioned five-wave structure expectation, an upside breakout requires continuous capital pull, catalysts from positive news, and a resonance of sentiment—every step must be built with real money. The 2225-2370 range is a major structural heavy-resistance area; every step up comes with enormous costs. Geopolitical situations can reverse at any time, the Fed’s hawkish stance, high oil prices locking in rate hikes—any one of these variables can directly end the rebound. Going long is essentially betting that all uncertainties will be resolved at the same time, with extremely low tolerance for error.

For a downside retracement, all that’s needed is profit-taking by longs and the release of sell pressure, with no additional cost. The big-structure bearish trend remains unchanged; all rebounds are just corrections within a downtrend. Tightening macro liquidity, suppression from high inflation, and a strengthening U.S. dollar—each of these is a long-term negative. Falling is always easier than rising. Every push higher above 2200 is an excellent window for shorts to set up; the cost-to-profit ratio crushes going long.

Bullish sentiment has built up too much, and the risk of a “mass liquidation” is approaching: ETH long positions have hit a new stage high in open interest. Bullish sentiment is overly euphoric. Once geopolitical sentiment fades, the concentrated closing of long positions will trigger a stampede, accelerating the downward move.

⚠️ Warm reminder:
The above is only a personal trading idea sharing and does not constitute investment advice. The market changes in an instant—strictly manage your position size, respect the market, and trade rationally.
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