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4.10星期五午间行情分析
今晚20:30,美国3月CPI数据即将公布,这份通胀报告堪称近期市场最关键的考验。
个人观点明确:本次数据大概率偏空。
作为首份完整计入地缘风险溢价与油价飙升的通胀数据,通胀压力已然难以掩盖。布伦特原油年内涨幅逼近60%,市场预期月度涨幅或将刷新近四年新高。就业市场韧性十足、能源价格居高不下,通胀回落之路愈发艰难。
债市资金已大举对冲,押注美债收益率持续上行,年内降息预期从多次下调至仅存一次,概率更是跌至30%。若CPI超预期走高,降息延后、次数缩减乃至重启加息的预期,将直接冲击市场。加密市场作为风险资产,势必受流动性收紧预期压制,比特币难有独立反弹行情,美伊战争没利好消息面出来盘面会迅速下跌
今夜切勿盲目激进。
BTC操作建议:72300附近空,止损73500,止盈70800-68500
ETH操作建议:2200附近空,止损2250,止盈2160-2080