Reliable and up-to-date sources confirm that maritime traffic on the Strait of Hormuz remains severely restricted following the ceasefire, but the claim of completely zero tanker passages is not a definitive and verified fact.

According to international agencies, despite the ceasefire declared between the US and Iran, the strait has not been fully opened in practice. Energy transportation has largely come to a standstill, and hundreds of oil tankers are reportedly waiting to pass through. Furthermore, maritime data indicates movement far below normal daily levels, with only a few ships observed passing through on some days.

The situation remains critical, particularly for energy transportation. Despite the ceasefire, control mechanisms implemented by Iran are limiting passages, and major energy companies and tanker operators are staying away from the region due to insurance and security risks. Therefore, it is clear that oil and LNG flows have not yet normalized.

Some data indicates a very low number of ship movements in the last 24 hours, with a significant portion being non-tanker cargo ships, but the claim of definitively zero tanker passages is not corroborated by all sources. Instead, the general consensus is that traffic has almost come to a standstill.

Professional Assessment in this Context

Recent developments observed on the Strait of Hormuz, one of the most critical straits for global energy markets, once again highlight the decisive role of geopolitical risks in pricing. Despite the ceasefire declared between the US and Iran, the failure to normalize maritime traffic indicates that uncertainty structurally persists in the markets.

The sharp decline in the passage of energy tankers creates a perception of a serious supply contraction, supporting upward pressure on oil prices. However, the failure of the market's expectation of a rapid normalization after the ceasefire shows that the risk premium has not completely disappeared, but rather evolved into a different form.

The key element that stands out in this process is the divergence between physical flow and financial pricing. Although the ceasefire has provided short-term geopolitical relief, energy logistics have not yet been re-established due to operational uncertainties and security concerns. This shows that markets react not only to political statements but also to the actual conditions on the ground.

In conclusion, current data confirm that energy transportation across the strait is virtually at a standstill, but claims that it has completely dropped to zero should be evaluated cautiously. For global energy markets, this picture indicates that volatility may continue in the short term, while in the medium and long term, the theme of supply security will remain a decisive factor in investment decisions.
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