Economist: U.S. March CPI Month-over-Month Could Surge 1%, Federal Reserve May Find It Difficult to Cut Rates This Year

ME News update. On April 5 (UTC+8), economists said that the sudden jump in gasoline prices is being felt directly by American consumers, and will be reflected in the key inflation data to be released this week. The U.S. expects March CPI to rise 1% month over month, which would be the largest single-month increase since 2022; core CPI may rise 0.3% month over month. Earlier, the Iran war pushed up U.S. gas station gasoline prices by about $1 per gallon. On the day before the CPI data is released, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge will provide information about wartime price pressures. Economists expect that the core PCE price index could rise 0.4% in February for the third consecutive month, suggesting that even before the conflict erupted, the process of easing inflation to a more moderate level had already stalled. Combined with signs of stabilization in the U.S. labor market, stubborn price pressures, and new inflation risks brought by the Middle East war, this helps explain why the Federal Reserve this year may find it difficult to cut interest rates. (Source: Jin10)