Are we all waiting for Bitcoin's final drop?

Bitcoin is currently trading within a narrow range, retracing 47% from its October 2025 high. The market seems to be focused on whether the last decline of the bear market is still to come, and on-chain signals and institutional actions have provided some guidance.

On-chain data shows that the supply of profitable Bitcoin has fallen to 11.3 million coins, reaching the "bottom discovery" zone marked by CryptoQuant.

This indicator has only bottomed out during the 2018/2019 bear markets, the March 2020 crisis, and the 2022 FTX collapse, indicating that short-term speculative positions have been forced out, sellers are weakening, and long-term holders are dominating the market.

However, analysts also warn that the bottom zone does not mean an immediate V-shaped rebound; further signals are needed for confirmation.

Nevertheless, technical analysis suggests there may still be one last drop. The Bitcoin weekly Gaussian channel has shifted from upward to downward, a signal that historically in 2015, 2019, and 2022 has indicated the final stage of a bear market.

Some analysts expect that in Q2-Q3 2026, Bitcoin will establish its final bottom, with a target range of $40k to $50k, and a key support level at $44k. The four-year cycle structure remains intact for now.

Currently, Bitcoin is under pressure from the 50/100/200-day moving averages, with short-term fluctuations between $65,000 and $72k. Declining trading volume signals that the market is in a transition phase, with $70k being a critical dividing line between bulls and bears.

Contrasting the cautious market sentiment, institutions are actively accumulating against the trend.

Metaplanet, a publicly listed company, recently increased its holdings by 5,075 BTC, bringing its total to 40,000 BTC, ranking third among publicly listed companies worldwide. Its clear goal is to accumulate 210k BTC (1% of total supply), of which only 19% has been achieved so far.

This company's continuous, non-price-limited accumulation strategy directly withdraws liquidity from the market, locking in long-term positions and avoiding short-term price fluctuations.

The contrarian positioning of institutions like Metaplanet creates sustained structural demand, laying the supply-side foundation for a potential rebound.

Data also reflects current market divergence: River disclosed that corporate investors bought a total of 69k BTC in the past quarter, while retail investors sold 62k BTC during the same period.

It is worth noting that traditional financial giants are accelerating their deployment in digital assets.

Charles Schwab, managing over a trillion dollars in assets, recently announced plans to launch "Schwab Crypto" on its platform, allowing eligible clients to directly buy and sell Bitcoin and Ethereum.

In the short term, the crypto market remains influenced by developments in the Middle East, while the medium to long term focuses more on the Federal Reserve's moves. Whether the final drop will occur is currently more a matter of prediction than prophecy.