The US-Iran ceasefire plan includes lifting sanctions, unfreezing assets, and reopening the Strait of Hormuz, indicating that the market is still betting on a version that can quickly de-escalate. If this path is taken, oil prices will initially ease, and risk assets will also catch a breath; if no agreement is reached before Monday, geopolitical risks will be reintroduced. In the short term, it's more about emotional recovery rather than trend confirmation, and $BTC will follow expectations first.