"Federal Reserve mouthpiece": Low employment growth may become the new normal, but it is especially fragile in the context of war

MeNews · 2026-04-06T06:20:48+00:00

ME News Report, April 4 (UTC+8), "Federal Reserve spokesperson" Nick Timiraos wrote that 178k new jobs were added in March, reversing the sharp decline seen in February. The unemployment rate also fell to 4.3%. However, some details are less optimistic, as wage growth for ordinary workers slowed to the lowest year-over-year increase in five years since the pandemic recovery. Averaging these two volatile months reveals a clearer potential trend: an average of only 22.5k new jobs per month. Two years ago, adding 22.5k jobs per month would have been cause for concern; today, such a level might still be considered acceptable. Federal Reserve officials are still working to explain this change. San Francisco Fed President Daly wrote on Friday, "It's not easy to help the public understand that an economy with zero job growth can still be consistent with full employment." As the new supply shocks arrive again, the situation

MeNews

2026-04-06 06:20:48

ME News message, April 4 (UTC+8), “Federal Reserve megaphone” Nick Timiraos wrote that March added 178k new jobs, reversing the steep drop in February. The unemployment rate also fell to 4.3%. But some details are not quite optimistic: wage growth for ordinary workers slowed to the lowest year-over-year pace in the five years since the post-pandemic recovery. Averaging these two more volatile months shows the underlying trend more clearly: average monthly net new jobs of only 22.5k. Two years ago, adding 22.5k jobs per month was enough to raise alarm; but today, such a level may still be seen as acceptable. Federal Reserve officials are still working to explain this change. San Francisco Fed President Daly wrote on Friday: “Getting the public to understand that an economy with zero job growth still aligns with full employment is not easy.” With new supply shocks hitting again, this situation is especially fragile. If the war involving Iran continues, high fuel costs or shortages of commodities could squeeze businesses and consumers, leaving the labor market without a buffer to absorb the shock. Meanwhile, as inflation concerns may weaken the certainty of rate cuts, the Federal Reserve’s policy room is even more limited. (Source: ChainCatcher)

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