VanEck Research Director: BTC derivatives protective demand reaches historical extreme levels, signaling a contrarian bullish indicator

ME News update: On April 4 (UTC+8), Matthew Sigel, Head of Research at VanEck, posted an analysis on X stating that the protective demand in the current Bitcoin derivatives market has risen to the 99th percentile in history. It is usually seen as a “contrarian long signal” under conditions of extreme risk-off sentiment, and he judged that the market at this stage is suitable for establishing long positions. Since its inception, the VanEck Digital Transformation ETF (NODE), which is also managed by Matthew Sigel, is up 27%, while Bitcoin is down 33% over the same period, delivering lower volatility performance by diversifying allocations and focusing on profitable segments. However, he also warned that if companies’ large capital expenditures in the artificial intelligence (AI) sector fail to generate corresponding returns, they may create substantial pressure on the market—especially in a backdrop where weights are concentrated in S&P 500 constituent stocks. Note: Percentiles are a statistical position concept; the 99th percentile indicates a relatively extreme level, while the 50th percentile represents the horizontal median. (Source: ChainCatcher)