I just saw some recent views from Mark Spitznagel, and this guy is really interesting. He is a hardcore fan of Taleb's Black Swan theory, specializing in making money by predicting market crashes. But his way of speaking is always like this: first, he scares you half to death, then he gives you a reassurance.

The three things he's most worried about right now, I think it's worth listening to:

First, the biggest credit bubble in human history. Since the financial crisis, the Federal Reserve has been flooding the market with liquidity, interest rates are extremely low, and everyone is borrowing money as if it’s free. Now, debt has accumulated to the point where it’s impossible to pay back—both corporations and countries are heavily indebted.

Second, there’s no soft landing for this bubble. His view is very straightforward: debt either gets repaid or defaults—there’s no third way. With this scale, it’s simply unpayable and will inevitably burst. He even says it could be worse than the 1929 crash.

Third, today’s prosperity is just overdrawing the future. The economy looks vibrant, but in reality, it’s trading today’s happiness for tomorrow’s pain. The lower the interest rates, the more violent the rebound will be afterward, ultimately pushing all the risk onto the next generation.

Even major institutions are secretly worried: Bank of America says nearly $1 trillion in private debt could face problems; Charles Schwab predicts a significant rise in corporate defaults and bankruptcies this year; Goldman Sachs says U.S. debt interest costs will hit a new high by 2025.

But here’s the most interesting part—Mark Spitznagel, although he’s been warning about a crash, actually advises you not to sell stocks.

His logic is this: if you can hold for 20 years, just hold the S&P 500 and don’t touch it. Why? Because over a 20-year cycle, the S&P 500 will outperform all hedge funds. Short-term volatility won’t scare him; what really worries him is your mindset collapsing. And after a major crash, interest rates will drop back to rock bottom, and the stock market will continue to rise in the long run.

To summarize Mark Spitznagel’s core logic: in the short term, there’s a huge bubble, risk is off the charts, and a crash warning is ringing loud; in the long term, don’t mess around—buy a broad index and you’ll win passively. Simply put: short-term may be frightening, but holding a major index long-term is the most profitable.

Currently, BTC is at 67.29K, ETH at 2.06K, BNB at 592.40, and all are still fluctuating. In this market environment, rather than frequent trading, it might be better to think about your risk tolerance and investment horizon.