Analysis: Non-farm data still shows significant volatility, and the Federal Reserve's policy adjustment threshold remains quite high.

MeNews · 2026-04-04T12:54:52+00:00

Creditsights' Zachary Griffiths pointed out that the data is highly volatile and frequently revised, making it difficult to obtain clear policy signals from recent net data. The Federal Reserve may remain on the sidelines with high thresholds, and future rate hikes will be challenging while the likelihood of rate cuts remains low.

MeNews

2026-04-04 12:54:52

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ME News update: On April 3 (UTC+8), Zachary Griffiths, Head of Investment-Grade Credit at Creditsights, said the data still has further downward revisions. In February, it was revised down by 133,000, which shows the data has exhibited clear volatility and frequent revisions. It is also common for the figures to be revised again during the annual review. Therefore, it is difficult to obtain a clear signal from the net data over the past few months. As for the Federal Reserve’s policy based on these data, the threshold for any policy adjustment is currently very high. I believe they may be in a wait-and-see mode, especially as we see employment data coming in far above expectations, which is well above the level the Federal Reserve has discussed regarding the break-even point between gains and losses in relation to the unemployment rate. Therefore, we believe the threshold for a rate hike is higher than that for a rate cut, but policy is likely to remain unchanged in the foreseeable future, and today’s report undoubtedly further reinforces this view. (Jin10 (Source: ODAILY))

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