#Gate广场四月发帖挑战 #国际油价走高

Interest rates remain high, the dollar is strong, and a trend-driven bull market in crypto is unlikely.
The reason interest rates haven't eased is because inflation hasn't been contained, the economy hasn't collapsed, and wars and oil prices are adding chaos.
Today, international oil prices are rising, and I saw on X that Iran is only accepting RMB for oil sales.
Iran promoting oil settlement in RMB is an important long-term signal of de-dollarization. Over time, this will gradually weaken the dollar's global settlement dominance and also solidify the non-sovereign value foundation of cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum.
However, this change cannot reverse the strong dollar pattern in the short term, nor can it force the Federal Reserve to quickly loosen monetary policy.
Currently, ongoing geopolitical conflicts are pushing international oil prices higher, directly increasing global inflation pressures. U.S. inflation levels are still far from the Fed’s 2% policy target, combined with the resilience of the U.S. economy and no significant signs of a recession in the labor market. To suppress inflation and maintain dollar credibility, the Fed can only keep interest rates high. This also keeps the dollar strong and global liquidity tight.
This transmission to the crypto market results in a divergence between short-term and long-term cycles.
In the short term, high interest rates continue to suppress risk asset appetite. Bitcoin and Ethereum are unlikely to break out into a trend-driven bull market, only able to stay within a range, and may even experience short-term dips due to risk aversion sentiment.
In the medium to long term, as de-dollarization deepens and fiat currency credit margins weaken, the hedging and decentralized value of crypto assets will gradually become more prominent. Only after inflation subsides and interest rates truly loosen can we expect a genuine trend rally.
Remember, long-term positive factors do not necessarily indicate a short-term bull market.