Things are getting interesting in the USA job market. The number of job openings recently dropped to the lowest level in over a year, showing that demand for labor is clearly weakening. The Department of Labor reported that in November there were only 7.146 million available positions—which is a significant difference from what economists had forecast.

What’s going on? Employers are being cautious. Even though the number of job openings is falling, companies are still hesitating to carry out large-scale layoffs. Economists call it “a pause in hiring, a pause in firing”—as if the market has frozen in place. The ratio of job openings to unemployed workers fell to 0.91, the lowest since 2021. That means demand for workers is much weaker than it was just a few months ago.

The sectors that were hit hardest were those that had previously driven employment growth. Accommodation and food services lost 148,000 job openings, and healthcare lost 66,000. It’s clearly visible that big companies (50-999) people were cutting jobs, while small businesses rather held steady.

Economists are worried about political uncertainty—especially trade tariffs and the integration of artificial intelligence in various professions. This discourages companies from expanding their teams. When labor demand weakens and uncertainty grows, businesses wait and watch instead of investing in new employees.

Layoffs, however, remained moderate—they fell to 1.687 million. People also rarely leave their jobs voluntarily (3,161 million). This is a two-way caution—companies don’t want to lay off, and workers don’t want to risk quitting. Some economists warn that if labor demand continues to decline, employers may be forced to cut jobs instead of waiting for natural turnover.

The bond market responded with falling yields, and investors are betting that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged. Signals are mixed—the services Purchasing Managers’ Index showed solid growth, suggesting some momentum at the beginning of the year. But when you look at employment data, it’s clear that labor demand is under pressure.

The key to the future is how things play out with trade tariffs and AI. If uncertainty is resolved, labor demand may rebound. If not—we’re in for a long stretch of slow hiring without major layoffs.