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Is Trump about to take action?
First, according to a tweet from Old White, a suspected insider, a major investor just wagered $800,000 on Polymarket that the U.S. will launch a ground invasion of Iran.
Second, since this year, Trump has often preferred to cause trouble on Saturdays, likely to avoid impacting the U.S. stock market. On April 3rd, Good Friday, the stock market was closed. So from Friday to Sunday, there are three days, which is relatively suitable for action.
Third, the Pizza Index surged at 9 PM Thursday Beijing time, which is 9 AM Friday in the U.S.
It’s uncertain whether Trump will act within 72 hours before his final ultimatum.
Previously, Trump issued a final warning, with a deadline of 8:00 PM Eastern Time on April 6th, demanding Iran: fully and unconditionally open the Strait of Hormuz, remove all mines, and stop charging tolls in the strait; sign a ceasefire agreement and accept the 15 demands from the U.S., including halting nuclear programs and surrendering enriched uranium; cease attacks on U.S. companies.
Trump threatened that if no agreement is reached by the deadline, he will take “power outage actions,” bombing major power plants and grid hubs inside Iran, completely destroying Iran’s Kharg Island oil export terminal, and targeting desalination plants and refineries.
It’s speculated that even if there is no ground invasion during these three days, things probably won’t calm down.