Trump delivered a nationwide speech on the Iran situation at 9:00 AM Beijing time today (April 2nd). The core message is that the U.S. may end military operations against Iran within 2-3 weeks. The market generally interprets "war ending" as a major positive signal.

The market views Bitcoin and Ethereum as "risk assets." The end of the war means reduced geopolitical uncertainty, a rebound in risk appetite, and capital flowing from safe-haven assets into stocks, cryptocurrencies, and other high-risk sectors. This directly drives price rebounds. Before the speech, Bitcoin broke through $68,000, and Ethereum surpassed $2,100. Institutional funds also show signs of returning; in March, the US Bitcoin ETF ended four consecutive months of net outflows and turned to a net inflow of $1.2 billion.

However, the market may have already priced in some of these positives. Data shows that investors are still selling into the rebound ("silent distribution"), and on-chain data suggests that the true "market bottom" may not yet be confirmed—currently, the price is still 21% above the network's average cost basis, meaning most people are still in profit. Historically, major bottoms often require falling below the cost basis.

If oil prices decline but remain high, persistent inflation could force the Federal Reserve to delay interest rate cuts, which would exert medium-term pressure on crypto prices.

Gold and silver play more complex roles and are no longer purely safe-haven assets. The current rise is mainly driven by "dollar decline" and "expectations of rate cuts."

Before the speech, gold approached $4,800 per ounce, rising for four consecutive days; silver also followed higher. This is because if oil prices fall and ease inflation, the market will bet on the Fed cutting rates faster, benefiting interest-free assets like gold.

If the situation fully eases, gold prices may face a short-term double dilemma: ① waning geopolitical safe-haven demand leading to selling pressure; ② rising rate cut expectations providing support. Institutions have mixed views on this.

If the Strait of Hormuz cannot be quickly reopened, oil prices and inflation pressures will persist, and gold, as an inflation hedge, can still find support. However, this may also suppress rate cut expectations, causing market volatility.

Overall, Trump's remarks have brought short-term broad gains, but the risk of "buying the rumor, selling the fact" still exists. For the crypto market, whether a true trend can emerge depends on attracting sustained incremental capital, rather than relying solely on news-driven stimuli.