#四月行情预测 The level of cleansing for Q1 is intense: BTC has fallen 52% from its all-time high of 126,220; the Fear and Greed Index has been in extreme fear for 46 consecutive days; ETH has been cut in half from its peak, down 60%. Leverage has been wiped out, tourists have left, and only genuine capital remains.

But three catalysts are lining up on the April calendar. First: The CLARITY bill will be discussed in the Senate from April 13-20; passing would make it the United States' first comprehensive crypto market regulation law. Second: The Federal Reserve FOMC meeting on April 28-29, with Powell presiding for the last time—every word will be scrutinized. Third: If the Houthis crisis ends within 2-3 weeks as Trump suggested, the drop in oil prices will directly release risk appetite.
On-chain bottom signals are also lighting up: The Fear and Greed Index has fallen to 8; historically, when it drops below 15, the 30-day average return is +18.3%. Perpetual contracts with negative funding rates have been at their longest duration since 2022; short-sellers are at their limit, with a spring compressed to the extreme. Exchange reserves are at a 7-year low; whales are aggressively accumulating on-chain.
April’s average historical return exceeds 30%. But history is not a promise, only a probability. When fear reaches extremes, catalysts are dense, and on-chain chips are concentrated, the probability of which side is favored becomes obvious—there’s no need to argue. #四月行情预测 $BTC $ETH