#四月行情预测 April Market Outlook: Bulls and Bears Intertwined, Key Levels Set the Direction

At the start of April, Bitcoin broke above $68,000, and Ethereum regained the $2,100 level. The market seems to sense a hint of warming. However, behind the optimism, signals from technical, capital, and macro perspectives are quite complex. This article combines the latest data to analyze the core logic and key levels of April’s market from both bullish and bearish angles.
📊 Key Levels for April
Key Support
BTC
65,000-67,000
Bull-Bear Threshold
67,000
Key Resistance
70,000-72,000
Breakout Target
75,900
Ethereum (ETH)
Key Support
1,980 - 2,000
Bull-Bear Threshold
2,000
Key Resistance
2,130 - 2,166
Breakout Target
2,200 - 2,400
🟢 Factors Supporting April’s Rise
1. Geopolitical Tensions Easing, Risk Sentiment Improving
In March, Bitcoin posted its first monthly increase since September last year, ending five consecutive months of decline. The main catalyst was geopolitical: Iran’s president signaled a willingness to end conflicts, and Trump hinted at possibly halting military actions, directly boosting risk asset sentiment. Digital asset hedge fund Apollo Crypto stated, “Bitcoin is showing strong resilience around $68,000.”
2. Historical Seasonal Trends
Historically, April is one of Bitcoin’s strongest months. Since 2013, the average increase has been 13%, with a probability of over 60% for gains. Ethereum also benefits from seasonal support, with an average rise of about 18% in April and a median over 9%. Although 2026’s January-February broke this pattern, it still provides psychological support for the market.
3. On-Chain Supply Tightening
Data shows Ethereum’s staked ETH has surpassed 38 million, accounting for over 31% of the total supply. Currently, staking queues require about 50 days, while withdrawal queues are nearly empty, indicating holders are still locking in their tokens. This supply tightening diverges from the weakening price trend, and if demand recovers, a strong rebound could occur.
🔴 Risks Suppressing the Market
1. Technical Bearish Structure
On Bitcoin’s daily chart, all major moving averages are above the current price: 10-day around $67,832, 50-day around $71,005, and 200-day at $85,095. This alignment means every rebound faces multiple layers of resistance. Ethereum also faces resistance near $2,160 from the 50-day exponential moving average. More concerning is a hidden bearish divergence on the 3-day chart: price forms lower highs while RSI forms higher highs, often indicating a potential continuation of the downtrend.
2. Diminishing Institutional Momentum
In March, Bitcoin ETFs saw a net inflow of $1.13 billion, but in the last week, there was a net outflow of $296 million. Ethereum ETFs experienced a small inflow of only $4.9 million at month’s end after eight days of outflows. This suggests institutional buying slowed significantly. Meanwhile, the whale ratio (measuring large transactions on exchanges) surged from 0.34 in January to 0.79 on March 28, indicating large holders are still transferring tokens to exchanges.
3. Options Market Betting on Downside
Deribit data shows over $1.5 billion in put options clustered around the $60,000 strike. This indicates a large amount of capital is hedging against Bitcoin falling below $60,000—if key support fails, these options could accelerate the downward move.
4. Holder Confidence Wavering
For Ethereum, the 30-day net accumulation of holders (holding over 155 days) plummeted from 543,000 ETH on March 21 to 122,000 ETH at month’s end, a 78% drop. This pattern closely resembles the pre-drop in February, when similar signals preceded a roughly 46% decline in ETH.
📈 April Trend Forecast: Defense and Counterattack
Considering the above bullish and bearish factors, April’s market is likely to follow a “first defend, then decide the direction” pattern.
Bitcoin’s (BTC) critical support zone is $65,000–$67,000. Holding this range could allow a rebound to continue; a daily close below $67,000, combined with weakening ETF capital flows, might trigger another decline.
Downside targets: $60,000 (psychological level) → $57,000 → $52,600 (Fibonacci 0.618).
Reversal signals: Need to regain and sustain above $70,000–$72,000; if Bitcoin recovers to $75,900 (March high), the bearish structure would be invalidated.
Ethereum (ETH) short-term focus is on the $2,000 psychological level. A daily close below $2,000 would confirm the loss of the upward trend.
Downside targets: $1,750–$1,730 (February lows) → $1,350 (about 30% lower than current levels).
Reversal signals: Break through resistance at $2,200, then challenge the upper channel at $2,390.
💎 In summary, April’s market is at a delicate crossroads. Optimistic scenario: geopolitical tensions ease further + ETF capital flows return + $65,000 support holds → rebound toward $70,000–$72,000. Pessimistic scenario: macro disruptions recur + institutional buying weakens further + $65,000 support fails → decline to $60,000 or lower. Tokenize Capital partner Hayden Hughes offers a noteworthy perspective: “April may regain volatility, even if an initial rebound occurs due to expectations of ending the war, but the fundamentals for the year still point downward—risks like supply chain disruptions, high household debt, and private credit pressures are not fully priced in.”
For ordinary investors, controlling positions and strictly managing risk at key levels before the trend clarifies may be the safest approach.
Do you think Bitcoin can hold above $65,000 in April? Share your thoughts in the comments!