Why Wall Street and Crypto Founders Both Think the CLARITY Act Is Doomed

TLDR

• Cardano founder Charles Hoskinson says the CLARITY Act could take 15 years to fully implement
• Hoskinson warns future administrations could weaponize the bill’s existing text
• TD Cowen gives the bill just a one-in-three chance of passing this year
• The stablecoin yield compromise is seen as insufficient to move the bill forward
• New crypto projects could be locked into securities classification with no clear path out

The U.S. crypto market structure bill known as the CLARITY Act is facing serious doubts from both industry leaders and financial analysts. Two separate assessments released this week paint a bleak picture for the legislation’s chances.

Cardano founder Charles Hoskinson said the bill, even if passed, could take up to 15 years of rulemaking to become fully functional. He described the legislation as a “Frankenstein’s monster” that tries to do too much at once.

JUST IN: Charles Hoskinson accuses Ripple of “pulling up the ladder”, slams CLARITY Act as “horrific trash” that favors XRP over new projects pic.twitter.com/IveXzgvGCt

— crypto.news (@cryptodotnews) March 29, 2026

Hoskinson also warned the bill could be weaponized politically. “If the Democrats win in 2029, there are avenues in the existing text that they can use to weaponize the CLARITY Act,” he told CoinDesk.

He traced the current hostile regulatory climate back to the collapse of FTX in 2022. Before that, he said, there was genuine bipartisan support for crypto legislation. After it, Democrats shifted sharply against the industry.

“FTX was sponsoring Tom Brady. It was a very mainstream project,” Hoskinson said. “It really damaged the public perception of crypto.”

One of his sharpest criticisms is about how the bill treats new crypto projects. Under the current structure, all new tokens would start as securities by default, with no easy path to a different classification.

“The SEC has no incentive to ever graduate anything from being a security to a non-security,” Hoskinson said. He argued this locks in advantages for established cryptocurrencies like Cardano, XRP and Ethereum, while blocking new entrants.

Stablecoin Yield Debate Misses the Point

Hoskinson said the debate has become too focused on stablecoin yield, which he sees as a minor issue. “It’s like setting the house on fire and then complaining about the length of the grass,” he said.

He also criticized lawmakers for lacking the technical expertise needed to regulate crypto. “Rulemaking has no technical people in the room,” he said.

On the global stage, Hoskinson said U.S. lawmakers are ignoring frameworks already in place in Europe, Japan, Singapore and the Middle East. Without coordination, U.S. rules risk becoming incompatible with international standards.

TD Cowen Sees One-in-Three Odds

Investment bank TD Cowen echoed the pessimism. Analyst Jaret Seiberg said his firm is “increasingly pessimistic” and puts the odds of the CLARITY Act passing this year at just one in three.

The bill is currently stuck in the Senate while Congress is on a two-week Easter break. The Banking Committee is eyeing late April for a potential markup session.

Seiberg noted that even previously optimistic senators are pulling back. Senator Mark Warner recently cut his own odds estimate from 80% down to 50–60%.

The stablecoin yield compromise, pushed by Senators Thom Tillis and Angela Alsobrooks, would ban yield on idle stablecoin balances but allow activity-based rewards. Seiberg said this compromise satisfies neither crypto platforms nor banks.

TD Cowen believes the most likely window for action is late July, just before the August congressional recess.