1. Overall Tone: Volatility with Bottoming, First Suppress and Then Rise

The April market is likely to be in a phase of "weak rebound + bottoming and consolidation."

• Macro Pressure: The Fed's rate cut expectations are delayed, high interest rate environment persists, and USD liquidity tightens.

• Market Structure: In the second year after Bitcoin halving (2026), historical patterns tend to show a secondary bottom.

• Sentiment: Institutional ETF fund inflows are weak, market confidence is lacking.

2. Bitcoin (BTC) April Forecast

Current Price (4.1): $68,245

• Core Range: $60,000 ~ $72,000, wide fluctuations

• Key Levels

◦ Resistance: $69,000 (dense liquidation zone), $72,000 (bull-bear dividing line)

◦ Support: $65,500 (strong support), $60,000 (important bottom)

• Scenario Analysis

◦ Baseline (60% probability): Repeatedly test $65,500 support within the month, rebound weakly, close with a doji or small bearish candle.

◦ Optimistic (30% probability): Hold above $72,000, initiate a rebound, target **$78,000 ~ $80,000**.

◦ Pessimistic (10% probability): Effectively break below $65,500, accelerate downward to **$60,000 ~ $56,000**.

3. Ethereum (ETH) April Forecast

Current Price (4.1): $2,107

• Core Range: $1,800 ~ $2,400

• Key Levels

◦ Resistance: $2,200 (weak/strong boundary), $2,390

◦ Support: $2,000 (psychological level), $1,800

• Scenario Analysis

◦ Baseline: Follow Bitcoin's volatility, mainly between $1,900 ~ $2,200.

◦ Optimistic: Hold above $2,200, challenge **$2,400**.

◦ Pessimistic: Break below $2,000, look down to **$1,800 ~ $1,600**.

4. Key Factors Influencing April

1. Macro Economy (Largest Variable)

◦ US CPI, PCE data: If inflation exceeds expectations, rate cuts are further delayed, bearish for crypto markets.

◦ Fed Officials' Remarks: Signals of rate cuts are bullish; emphasizing high rates is bearish.

2. Capital Flows

◦ Bitcoin ETF: Continuous net outflows are bearish; return to net inflows is bullish.

◦ Whale Movements: Address age consumption indicators (old coins in circulation) are signals for market initiation.

3. Events and Regulations

◦ EU MiCA Legislation (effective July): Increased compliance pressure.

◦ Bitcoin Options Expiry (late April): Likely to trigger significant volatility.

◦ Geopolitics (Middle East situation): Easing tensions boost risk appetite; tensions favor digital gold attributes.

5. Trading Suggestions (For Reference Only)

• Strategy: Light positions, observe and buy low, sell high.

• BTC:

◦ Buy Low: $65,000 ~ $66,000 range, stop loss **below $65,000**.

◦ Take Profit: $70,000 ~ $72,000.

• ETH:

◦ Buy Low: $1,950 ~ $2,000.

◦ Take Profit: $2,200 ~ $2,300.

• Risk Management: Total position not exceeding 30%, strictly set stop losses.