I. Current Situation (As of March 31, 2026)

• BTC: Approximately $67,800, oscillating at high levels, support at $65,000–$68,000, resistance at $70,000–$72,500

• ETH: Approximately $1,900–$2,000, relatively resilient against declines

• Market Characteristics: Dominated by institutions, clear regulations, high-level oscillations, increased volatility

II. Core Trends in the First Half of 2026 (April–June)

1. Macro and Regulatory Factors (Largest Variables)

• Federal Reserve Rate Cut Expectations: Possible rate cuts in Q2, easing liquidity benefits crypto

• US Regulatory Implementation: Progress on crypto legislation, spot ETH ETF approval expected, compliant funds accelerating entry

• BTC 20 Millionth Coin Mined: Further scarcity reinforcement

2. Mainstream Coin Trends (Institutional Consensus)

• Bitcoin (BTC)

◦ Q1: Consolidation with oscillations, range 60,000–75,000, digesting selling pressure

◦ Q2: Increased probability of breakout, target 80,000–100,000; optimistic outlook 120,000–150,000

◦ Institutional Divergence: Some see a correction to 60,000–65,000, most view it as a buying opportunity

• Ethereum (ETH)

◦ Stronger than BTC, with 1,800–2,000 as strong support

◦ Driven by Layer2, Pectra upgrades, staking, AI + on-chain applications, potential to reach 2,500–3,000

• Other Mainstream Coins: SOL, BNB, etc., show clear differentiation, capital flowing into compliant projects with solid fundamentals

3. Main Investment Tracks (Most Capital Concentrated)

• RWA (Real-World Asset Tokenization): The strongest theme in 2026, heavily held by institutions, surpassing trillions in scale

• AI + Crypto: Explosive growth driven by AI Agents, compute power chains, data privacy

• Ethereum Layer2: Migration of DeFi/NFT, TVL reaching new highs

• Stablecoins: Focus on compliance, cross-border payments, enterprise settlement expansion

4. Market Structure Changes

• De- retailization and institutionalization: ETFs, asset management, sovereign funds becoming main players

• Weakening of four-year cycles: Dominated by institutional funds, regulation, and macro factors

• Altcoin Differentiation: Scam coins phased out, fundamentals + compliance + narratives become key

III. Key Timeline (April–June)

• April: Federal Reserve policy meetings, BTC ETF capital flows, ETH ETF progress, on-chain token accumulation completion

• May–June: Peak window for Q2 market, some institutions view June as the cycle peak

IV. Risk Alerts

• Macro Risks: Repeated inflation, delayed Fed rate cuts, geopolitical conflicts

• Market Risks: Large unlocks, whale sell-offs, regulatory reversals

• Volatility: Daily fluctuations of 5–15% are normal; strict position and stop-loss management required

V. One Sentence Summary

The first half of 2026 is a structure of oscillation and consolidation followed by breakout and upward movement: BTC leads, ETH follows, sector differentiation, institutional pricing; Q2 is the key window for the year, with dips as opportunities to deploy.