March 30, 2026

After a further decline, the market suddenly experienced a small rebound. The reason is that Trump claimed Iran has agreed to most of the U.S. ceasefire conditions. Although Trump is a master of rhetoric, the market still responded positively to this statement. This also indirectly indicates that the long-term closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which has caused inflation issues, will be one of the biggest gray rhinos that the financial markets will worry about next.
After several days of continuous decline, U.S. stocks are expected to see a bottoming rebound on the daily chart level following Trump's statement. Currently, the pressure on U.S. stocks has indirectly transmitted to the crypto market, cutting off this rebound momentum. Therefore, the performance of U.S. stocks next is crucial. If U.S. stocks really break through multiple levels consecutively, it will be difficult for the crypto market to remain unaffected, even after such a significant drop.
In the blink of an eye, the first quarter has entered its final stage. Compared to the second half of last year, these past few months have performed relatively well, but I am disappointed that we didn't complete a decent rebound in March as expected. From a macro perspective, the 60,000-70,000 range for Bitcoin and 1,800-2,000 for Ethereum are not considered high prices, but honestly, they are not prices suitable for a full-blown bottom-fishing strategy, especially for those who haven't experienced a deep bear market.
However, let me clarify that I still maintain a 90% high position. Last week's small rebound attempt led me to sell some options, which I have now bought back. Due to recent sideways consolidation, my grid strategy has generated some good cash flow over the past month. Currently, I believe there is a good chance that the overall trend will complete a bottoming or