Prediction Market Kalshi Data shows that this year’s U.S. midterm elections have an 85% chance of Democrats winning the House of Representatives, reaching a new high.

A framework developed by Deutsche Bank strategists indicates that former President Trump tends to make the most impactful decisions when market pressure is at its peak.
The bank’s “Pressure Index” combines four indicators: the S&P 500 and U.S. Treasury yields, inflation expectations, and Trump’s approval rating.
Data shows that the index spiked significantly last spring when Trump announced a delay in “reciprocal tariffs,” last summer when he clarified he had no intention of firing Federal Reserve Chair Powell, and earlier this year when he threatened to use force to seize Greenland.
Currently, the index has risen to its highest level since Trump took office in January 2025.