Ending the war as soon as possible may be wishful thinking on Trump's part. A quick resolution is unrealistic. The U.S. side's 15:00 demands are extremely high, while Iran's 5:00 bottom line is non-negotiable. Iran has also stated officially: When the war ends depends on Iran, not Trump. What if you can't beat us? Fighting to the death puts you in a dilemma. Moreover, Israel is the biggest external obstacle to a ceasefire.

Most likely, it will be a process of ongoing negotiations with low-intensity conflict; a less likely scenario is a stalemate with gradual de-escalation; a full-scale escalation? That almost won't happen unless U.S. forces attack key energy facilities like Hark Island. If Trump is truly foolish enough to want oil prices to hit $150 per barrel, then a financial crisis is imminent.