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【March 20 Options Expiration Data】
23,000 BTC options expiring, Put Call Ratio at 0.88, max pain point at $70,000, notional value of $1.6 billion.
176,000 ETH options expiring, Put Call Ratio at 1.04, max pain point at $2,150, notional value of $370 million.
The crypto market's latest rally has come to an end, with Bitcoin briefly breaking below the $70,000 round level. In the past week, $75,000 has been frequently mentioned as a key resistance level, with 5% of month-end options accumulated at this price. The final breakout attempt failed and prices retreated to around $70,000.
Next Friday is the quarterly expiration. Based on options market data, 75K is the most concentrated position price and is absolute resistance. Below that, 65K/62K/60K are all dense position areas that can be considered as support on downside. This week, the IV and RV of the main-term options remain essentially unchanged, with BTC's main-term IV around 50% and ETH's main-term IV around 70%. Declining RV continues to push VRP upward.
Only 5% of total open interest in options is expiring, continuing to hit the lowest level. Despite volatility, Bitcoin's trading activity remains at extremely low levels. Due to price retreat, Skew has declined across the board, the market remains in bear territory, and bullish momentum is extremely fragile.