BTC/Gold Ratio Historical Bottom May Have Occurred in February: Mercado Bitcoin Report Analysis

In the world of crypto assets, different “yardsticks” for measuring value often reveal entirely different market landscapes. While most investors are accustomed to viewing Bitcoin prices in USD, an older “store of value” asset—gold—is becoming a new lens to understand Bitcoin’s cycle position. A recent report from Brazil’s largest crypto exchange, Mercado Bitcoin, suggests that when priced in gold, Bitcoin’s historical bottom may have already occurred in February 2026. This view challenges the traditional USD-based mindset and offers a statistically supported perspective on the current subdued market sentiment.

Why does valuing in gold reveal different market cycles?

When priced in USD, Bitcoin’s peak is projected around October 2025 at approximately $126,000. However, switching the valuation to gold shifts the timeline: the BTC/gold ratio peaks earlier, in January 2025. The core reason is the strong movement in gold prices. Since early 2025, driven by global central bank gold purchases, geopolitical conflicts, and fiscal uncertainties in major economies, gold prices have steadily risen, briefly surpassing $5,000 per ounce in early 2026.

This divergence leads to a key outcome: although Bitcoin’s USD price remains relatively high compared to its historical lows, its purchasing power in gold (the BTC/gold ratio) has been shrinking for 14 months. This “USD-denominated resilience, physical asset valuation weakness” divergence reflects real macro capital flows—when global uncertainty rises, capital prefers time-tested assets like gold over digital assets that are only a decade old.

What drives the BTC/gold ratio?

The main mechanism behind fluctuations in the BTC/gold ratio is the macro shift between “safe-haven demand” and “risk appetite.” Rony Szuster, head of research at Mercado Bitcoin, notes that since early 2026, global trade tensions, geopolitical conflicts, and US domestic policy disputes have sharply increased the global uncertainty index. In such an environment, gold’s appeal as the ultimate safe haven is amplified, attracting large capital inflows, while Bitcoin, seen as a higher-beta risk asset, faces significant outflows.

This capital movement is especially evident in the ETF market. Since November 2025, spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen outflows of about $7.8 billion, roughly 12% of total assets under management. This indicates that short-term macro hedge funds that previously poured into Bitcoin via ETFs are now pulling back amid uncertainty, shifting their focus to gold or other traditional safe havens. This capital rotation directly depresses the BTC/gold ratio.

What are the market costs of this divergence?

The severe divergence between Bitcoin and gold first impacts Bitcoin’s “digital gold” narrative. When their prices diverge for over a year, the market begins to reassess Bitcoin’s asset nature: Is it a long-term store of value like gold, or a higher-beta macro liquidity-sensitive asset? Current data points to the latter. CoinDesk analysis shows that over the past year and five-year cycles, gold’s returns have actually outperformed Bitcoin, a structural shift that long-term believers in Bitcoin’s scarcity narrative need to acknowledge.

Second, this divergence influences investor psychology. Many USD-based investors may not realize that their assets’ purchasing power (measured in gold) is shrinking. This hidden loss can reduce long-term holders’ willingness to sell but may also lead to complacency or inaction at lows, preventing new buying momentum to reverse trends.

What does this imply for the current market?

Although the BTC/gold ratio is in a bear market, this situation is fostering new market dynamics. First, institutional “whale” activity shows a contrarian pattern. While retail investors retreat in fear, large long-term investors see current levels as accumulation zones. The report highlights that Abu Dhabi’s sovereign wealth fund Mubadala and Al Warda Investment increased their spot Bitcoin ETF exposure in mid-February 2026, indicating strategic capital leveraging market panic to build positions.

Second, extreme technical indicators suggest mean reversion pressure. Several analysts observe that the weekly RSI of the BTC/gold ratio has fallen to historic lows—similar conditions in 2015, 2018, and 2022 preceded over a year of sustained upward trends. Statistically, such extremes often signal trend exhaustion and the emergence of a new cycle.

How might this evolve in the future?

Based on historical cycle patterns, Mercado Bitcoin offers a clear scenario: if history repeats, the bottom in gold-priced Bitcoin may have occurred in February 2026, with a recovery starting around March. This is based on the typical 12-14 month bear market cycle, with the peak in January 2025 and the bottom in February 2026 fitting this timeframe.

However, future developments are unlikely to be mere repetitions. A more probable scenario involves Bitcoin and gold shifting from a “see-saw” to a “dual-core” driver. If global liquidity conditions loosen in the coming months, Bitcoin’s high volatility could lead to a rebound far exceeding gold’s, rapidly restoring the BTC/gold ratio. Additionally, the launch of Bitcoin spot ETF options and increased institutional adoption could reinforce Bitcoin’s role as a “digital store of value,” complementing rather than competing with gold.

What are the potential risks and limitations?

It is important to recognize the inherent limitations of ratio-based bottom calls. First, macro uncertainties remain. Ongoing geopolitical tensions and persistent inflation could keep gold prices strong, causing the ratio to be tested or even broken downward if gold continues rising while Bitcoin stagnates. Second, the risk of breakdown in historical patterns exists. Although the past 14 months of bear markets align with historical norms, macro environment changes—such as high ETF liquidity and complex interest rate trajectories—may produce a different cycle. Lastly, market sentiment self-reinforces and can distort signals: if too many investors believe “the bottom is in February” and rush in early, it might lead to an early bottom but also exhaust buying power, hindering a sustained trend.

Summary

Mercado Bitcoin’s report offers a unique perspective beyond USD benchmarks: when valued in gold, Bitcoin may have already passed its darkest phase. This conclusion is rooted in statistical cycle analysis, macro capital flow insights, institutional behavior, and extreme technical indicators. For investors, the current stage may not be a despairing abyss but, as the report states—“statistically, we are in a zone where the best average prices tend to form.” The real test lies in maintaining clarity amid fear and patiently waiting for market consensus to re-emerge.

FAQ

What is the BTC/gold ratio? Why is it important?

The BTC/gold ratio measures how many bitcoins one ounce of gold can buy, or equivalently, the Bitcoin price divided by the gold price. It is important because it strips out fiat currency inflation or devaluation effects, directly reflecting Bitcoin’s relative purchasing power against a traditional store of value—gold—helping to identify Bitcoin’s true cycle position.

What is the core conclusion of the Mercado Bitcoin report?

The report indicates that, given Bitcoin’s typical bear market lasts about 12-13 months and the peak in gold-priced Bitcoin occurred in January 2025, the potential bottom window could be around February 2026, with recovery possibly starting in March. This is a cycle analysis of the BTC/gold ratio, not a USD price forecast.

What technical indicators support the bottom hypothesis?

Multiple indicators show extreme conditions: weekly RSI of the BTC/gold ratio is at historic lows—similar to previous bottoms in 2015, 2018, and 2022, followed by over a year of trend reversal; the ratio is well below its 200-week moving average, with declines near historical bear market levels; Z-Score metrics also indicate Bitcoin is undervalued relative to gold.

What are institutional investors doing now?

Capital flows are diverging. Short-term macro hedge funds have been withdrawing—about $7.8 billion from Bitcoin ETFs since November 2025—while long-term strategic investors, like Abu Dhabi’s sovereign wealth fund, are viewing the decline as an opportunity to accumulate more exposure.

What are the main risks in identifying the bottom?

Key risks include: geopolitical or inflation surprises that keep gold prices high and push the ratio lower; breakdown of historical cycle patterns due to macro environment shifts; and overly consensus market sentiment, which could make the bottom formation more complex. Investors should make decisions based on their risk tolerance and comprehensive analysis.