I find it hard to believe that Trump has truly stopped the war, and even harder to believe that Iran has any real capacity to retaliate. Sometimes chaos is also part of the strategy.

It's just that Iran is more complicated, and the consequences could far exceed expectations. This might be the reason why Trump is so confident in declaring the war over. Especially with Mohajer Taibeh Khamenei as a hardliner. Negotiating with such an opponent is not a good sign.
From Trump's perspective, although he is wavering, as a war of attrition, especially during the sensitive midterm election period, a decisive victory followed by a substantial withdrawal might be the best option.