$eth Weakening in a volatile oscillation, the war remains the main theme.

Affected by the war, the market price fluctuations will occur in several stages. Currently, we are likely in the second stage:
1. Risk aversion surges. During the initial outbreak or escalation of the war, the market tends to sell off cryptocurrencies and other risk assets in exchange for gold or US dollars, causing sharp price declines.
2. Energy inflation. The war drives up energy prices. If inflation persists, it will delay Federal Reserve rate cuts and impose long-term pressure on risk asset valuations.
3. Strategic assets. If the conflict involves major countries, their willingness to oppose the dollar system may enhance the strategic position of the crypto market, providing long-term support. However, in the short term, the negative impact of liquidity tightening usually outweighs the positive impact of strategic narratives.
If the prolonged conflict intensifies, market risk appetite will be difficult to recover, and $ETH is likely to continue weakening. The support levels from 1980-2000 remain worth referencing.