International crude oil outlook for next week (June 30 - July 4)
Key focus: US non-farm payrolls report, ISM manufacturing PMI, EIA weekly inventory, OPEC+ JMMC signals, actual transit volume through the Strait of Hormuz.
Weak oscillation (base case): If transit volume through the strait continues to recover + no new disruptions → supply recovery expectations suppress prices, oil prices will grind sideways in the range of WTI 69.5–73 / Brent 73–76. If the rebound fails to break through strong resistance, treat it as consolidation.
Short-term rebound conditions: If the strait faces renewed transit disruptions / Iran takes a hardline stance + US inventories continue to decline → may test resistance at 72.8–75.5/76 to the upside, but medium-term loose supply-demand expectations limit upside potential.
Downside breakout risk: If OPEC+ clearly increases production substantially + strong macroeconomic data pushes the dollar higher → WTI breaks below 69.5 then look to 67.5–68. Operational reference: Short term: buy low and sell high within the range, lightly try long positions based on support at 69.5–70, strictly stop loss; if the rebound meets resistance at 72.5–73, short-term shorting can be considered.
Medium term: maintain a oscillating bearish bias until effectively breaking through 75–76 (Brent 78.5–79). Do not chase rallies or bet on a reversal.
This article is compiled and analyzed based on public data, for learning and communication only, and does not constitute investment advice. Crude oil is highly volatile, please strictly control positions. $XTIUSD
Key focus: US non-farm payrolls report, ISM manufacturing PMI, EIA weekly inventory, OPEC+ JMMC signals, actual transit volume through the Strait of Hormuz.
Weak oscillation (base case): If transit volume through the strait continues to recover + no new disruptions → supply recovery expectations suppress prices, oil prices will grind sideways in the range of WTI 69.5–73 / Brent 73–76. If the rebound fails to break through strong resistance, treat it as consolidation.
Short-term rebound conditions: If the strait faces renewed transit disruptions / Iran takes a hardline stance + US inventories continue to decline → may test resistance at 72.8–75.5/76 to the upside, but medium-term loose supply-demand expectations limit upside potential.
Downside breakout risk: If OPEC+ clearly increases production substantially + strong macroeconomic data pushes the dollar higher → WTI breaks below 69.5 then look to 67.5–68. Operational reference: Short term: buy low and sell high within the range, lightly try long positions based on support at 69.5–70, strictly stop loss; if the rebound meets resistance at 72.5–73, short-term shorting can be considered.
Medium term: maintain a oscillating bearish bias until effectively breaking through 75–76 (Brent 78.5–79). Do not chase rallies or bet on a reversal.
This article is compiled and analyzed based on public data, for learning and communication only, and does not constitute investment advice. Crude oil is highly volatile, please strictly control positions. $XTIUSD
