7.29 BTC Analysis

Currently, BTC is consolidating near the mid-band. It looks like support, but in fact it’s a mid-band gravity trap, and the lower band 63106 is still left open. The RSI three lines are stuck around 45 at low values; RSI6 is below RSI12, forming a hidden death cross, and short-term momentum is weakening. On the derivatives side, the perpetual swap funding rate is negatively skewed, and right-skewed options indicate a surge in demand for downside hedging; the liquidation heatmap shows dense long positions overhead, so any rebound will trigger strong liquidation sell orders. In addition, after the gamma squeeze fades, market makers shift from long to short, and the rate of floating profits continues to decline, increasing the inclination of holders to take profits. On the hourly timeframe, if the price loses the mid-band, algorithmic sell orders will accelerate toward the lower band 63106, targeting the prior low at 62689, with a stop-loss reference at 64082 (the upper band). Order book thinness is intensifying; once broken, the risk of a cascading “longs liquidated, then more selling, more stepping” is extremely high.

Trading suggestion: place a range order at 64100-64600, target 62100-62600.
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