When will the altseason really arrive in 2026? These 2 indicators are key

Expectations for an altcoin season are intensifying as 2026 progresses, with investors beginning to shift their focus beyond Bitcoin. However, it may still be premature to celebrate. Although market optimism is growing, the fundamental requirements for a strong altseason are not yet fully aligned. The question many are asking is: what is missing for it to finally take off?

Expanding Manufacturing: The First Step Toward an Altseason?

The recent ISM Manufacturing PMI indicator registered at 52.6%, its highest reading in nearly 40 months, indicating that U.S. manufacturing has returned to expansion territory. Such positive macroeconomic signals are often precursors to bullish movements in risk assets.

Previous altseason cycles follow a clear pattern: they tend to emerge after periods when the ISM strengthens significantly. In 2017 and 2021, the beginnings of altseason coincided with PMI readings above 55. Although current levels remain below that psychological threshold, there is a possibility that we are witnessing the first signs of a major market shift.

Ethereum: Where is the momentum that altseason needs?

History suggests that Ethereum acts as a precursor to any altseason rally. However, the last 15 months paint a bleak picture: ETH has closed with losses in 12 of those months, showing a prolonged weakening that contradicts what is required for an altseason.

Looking at the monthly return chart, the trend is clear: irregular gains interspersed with frequent declines throughout 2024 and so far in 2026. Even during small rebounds, the momentum has not been sustained. This is crucial to understanding why an altseason has not yet taken off. Historically, any lasting altseason cycle has been preceded by a sustained and consistent bullish move in Ethereum. With ETH returning +1.11% over the past year, the necessary strength remains insufficient.

Capital Rotation: The Change the Market Still Awaits

The CoinGlass Altcoin Season Index was at 39 at the time of writing, well below the threshold that typically indicates a massive outflow of capital from Bitcoin into altcoins. Despite a more favorable macroeconomic climate, funds continue not to flow significantly into altcoins.

A complementary data point is equally revealing: BTC.D, the metric measuring Bitcoin dominance, remained near 60% on the daily chart, now at 56.42%. Classic altseason cycles have always started with a sharp decline in this dominance, showing investors abandoning Bitcoin in search of higher-risk assets. So far, that decisive shift has not materialized at the scale needed.

What’s Missing for an Altseason to Become Reality

Although early signals from the macroeconomic environment are gradually improving, the cryptocurrency market is still waiting for that catalyst to trigger an authentic altseason. Numbers are beginning to align in some areas, but the flow of global capital has not yet kept pace.

In summary: yes, there are reasons for cautious optimism. Macroeconomic conditions are slowly improving. However, for a true altseason to arrive, we need Ethereum to regain its historical strength and, most importantly, see a radical shift in how investors allocate their capital between Bitcoin and altcoins. Until these two elements fully align, talking about an altseason remains premature.