#特朗普宣布新关税政策 First, the conclusion: short-term bearish, increased volatility; medium-term safe-haven and policy hedging; long-term outlook on the dollar and regulatory trends.

1. Latest Policies (Effective from February 24, 2026)

• Imposing a 15% import tariff on goods from all countries worldwide for 150 days (under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974)

• Replacing the emergency tariffs previously ruled illegal by the Supreme Court

• Escalation of global trade tensions, rising inflation expectations, increased volatility in the dollar and US stocks

2. Direct Impact on the Crypto Market (Short-term)

• Risk assets decline in tandem
Cryptocurrencies and US stocks (especially the NASDAQ) have a correlation of over 0.7, tariffs trigger a plunge in US stocks → Bitcoin and Ethereum drop sharply
Example: After the news, BTC briefly fell from 87,000 to 82,000, ETH dropped over 6%

• Capital outflows and liquidations
Net outflows from crypto ETFs, increased contract liquidations, market fear index rises

• Stronger dollar suppresses crypto prices
Tariffs boost US inflation → market bets on delayed Fed rate cuts → dollar strengthens → crypto denominated in USD faces pressure

3. Possible Mid-term Shift (1–3 months)

• Return of safe-haven attributes
If trade war escalates or recession fears grow → funds flow out of stocks, some shift into Bitcoin (digital gold), gold, and stablecoins

• Concerns over US dollar creditworthiness
Tariffs intensify fiscal pressure and policy uncertainty → some funds seek non-USD assets, benefiting crypto

• Policy and regulatory hedging
If Trump simultaneously promotes crypto-friendly policies (such as ETFs, industry deregulation), it can partially offset the negative impact of tariffs

4. Long-term Logic (6 months+)

• US dollar dominance and alternative demand
De-dollarization accelerates globally → demand for crypto as cross-border/decentralized assets increases

• Inflation and monetary easing expectations
Tariffs push up inflation → if the economy weakens, the Fed reverts to easing → benefits risk assets and crypto

• Regulatory certainty
Implementation of US crypto regulatory framework, determining long-term capital inflow scale

5. Trading Recommendations (Minimalist)

• Short-term: control positions, avoid high leverage, monitor BTC/ETH support levels

• Medium-term: buy quality coins on dips, watch ETF capital flows and Fed statements

• Risks: US stocks second major decline, violent USD rally, sudden regulatory negative news