Navigating the recent market with our macro analysis is relatively straightforward. We identified a USDT dominance HTF bullish flag pattern and predicted that its breakout would lead to a strong expansion of the index, subsequently triggering a market decline, which bottomed out right within our macro resistance zones at 8.20% and 8.80%. We executed recent buys of BTC and ETH at this point. The index is now trading within a new macro range between this zone and 6.70%.

A retest of this resistance could lead to the formation of another HTF bearish divergence, which could serve as another new buying opportunity. Returning to recent highs would push the index to new all-time highs, followed by a phase of price discovery. In this scenario, we can only assume a macro bottom in cases of some macro bearish divergence, such as on the W or 2W charts, which would be a long-term buy signal.

On the other hand, the 6.70% zone remains the range low and, under certain conditions, a strong shorting area. Given BTC’s negative monthly and weekly closes, testing this zone now is relatively unlikely because the macro trend is very strong downward. However, under certain conditions, this is exactly where we would fully exit our positions and look to short at the upper end of the range. We will also look for potential new bullish flag patterns that could lead to another expansion of the index later on.