SpaceX IPO Timeline Remains a Mystery: What Is Elon Musk Really Planning?

2026 is a pivotal year for SpaceX investors. Rumors are swirling that the company may conduct an IPO with a valuation of $1.5 trillion this year, which would mean nearly 100% returns for investors who participated in the secondary financing last December. But will Elon Musk really follow through as planned? How likely is a SpaceX IPO? What other cards does Musk still hold?

Over the past decade, investors have been seeking opportunities to participate in this aerospace giant. Looking back, Fidelity and Alphabet (NASDAQ: GOOG/GOOGL) investors unexpectedly gained access to SpaceX investments ten years ago—these two companies participated in a $1 billion funding round when SpaceX’s valuation was only $1 billion. Today, from that funding round to the anticipated IPO, the valuation has increased by 150 times.

From $1 billion to $1.5 trillion: Did Musk change his mind?

For more than ten years, Elon Musk has been firmly opposed to SpaceX going public. His reasons are compelling: SpaceX’s mission is to make humanity a “multi-planetary species” by establishing colonies on Mars. This is an extremely costly goal that may not turn a profit for decades, and such long-term expenditure plans are unlikely to be warmly received by public shareholders of a listed company.

In 2013, Musk stated that he would consider an IPO only after Mars colonization was established and the rocket—then called the Mars Colonial Transporter (MCT), now known as Starship—was flying regularly. In his view, a space exploration company should first prove its profitability rather than promise distant dreams of reaching the stars.

But now, the situation may be changing. In a secondary financing round last December, SpaceX sought a valuation of $80 billion. More importantly, the expected IPO valuation could reach $1.5 trillion—doubling in just five months.

Behind the $80 billion funding: expectation or strategy?

In July 2025, SpaceX’s previous funding round valued the company at $40 billion. By the end of 2024, with a valuation of $35 billion, this was already a significant increase. But jumping from $40 billion to $80 billion in just five months seems like a bold gamble to many investors. The Wall Street Journal at the time pointed out that “$80 billion valuation is not guaranteed.”

However, if Musk hints that this $80 billion could leap to $1.5 trillion at IPO, the scenario changes entirely. Such a strategy might be just enough to attract investors to participate in the secondary financing at the $80 billion valuation. In fact, according to Bloomberg, this round of funding was successfully completed, with investors indeed participating at an $80 billion valuation.

The potential IPO target may be someone else: the true value of Starlink

But here’s a twist. Musk has repeatedly hinted that the real listing might not be SpaceX itself, but its subsidiary Starlink—the satellite internet company.

As early as 2020, SpaceX COO Gwynne Shotwell confirmed that “Starlink is a business suitable for going public.” In 2021, Musk himself mentioned the possibility of an IPO when Starlink’s operations become “relatively predictable.” By 2022, he further explained that this could happen “in three or four years,” aligning with the 2025-2026 timeframe.

Would investors be disappointed to learn that it’s Starlink, not SpaceX, that goes public? The answer might be surprising. Available data shows that Starlink accounts for nearly all of SpaceX’s profits—about 76% of the $1.55 billion in total revenue in 2025. In other words, Starlink is the real cash cow of the group.

Investment value analysis: Why might a Starlink IPO be more attractive?

From an investment perspective, listing Starlink alone could be more appealing than an entire SpaceX IPO. First, Starlink has stable revenue streams and strong profitability, which institutional investors value most. Second, investors can gain exposure to SpaceX’s most profitable business without bearing the financial burden of long-term, unprofitable projects like Mars exploration.

This separation also benefits SpaceX’s parent company. Funds raised from a Starlink IPO could directly support Musk’s Mars colonization ambitions without needing to explain to traditional shareholders why billions are being invested in unprofitable space missions. From this angle, a Starlink IPO might be the smartest way to raise capital.

Two scenarios for 2026: how to handle uncertainty

At this point, there are two core scenarios for SpaceX/Starlink going public in 2026: one, Musk proceeds with the planned SpaceX IPO in 2026, reaching a $1.5 trillion valuation; or two, he shifts gears and pushes for an independent Starlink listing.

Whichever path is chosen, investors should recognize that gaining exposure to the space industry is no longer a distant dream. The key is understanding the advantages and disadvantages of each route and adjusting investment strategies accordingly. A SpaceX IPO could offer greater growth potential and imagination but comes with higher risks; a Starlink IPO is more pragmatic, providing stable cash flow and a relatively predictable business model.

Whatever Musk ultimately decides, this move will profoundly influence the investment landscape of the space economy. The crucial thing is to be well prepared before the final decision is announced.