The key Federal Reserve meeting record from September 2020 was recently made public, and the zero interest rate policy decision that Powell strongly advocated at the time now appears to be a turning point.

At that time, inflation data was only 1.3%, and the Fed's internal forecast predicted it wouldn't reach the target level until 2023. However, Powell ignored the objections of two officials and risk warnings from colleagues, and implemented strong guidance. What was the result? Inflation began to spiral out of control in 2021, reaching a high of 7.2% in 2022. The Fed was constrained by its own commitments and only took action to raise interest rates in March 2022, missing the optimal window. Ironically, Powell later publicly stated that he would never make such commitments again.

How big was the impact of this event on the crypto circle? It directly affected market expectations.

First, the cycle of rate cuts has become distant. After the Fed's credibility was damaged, its policy stance became more conservative. The latest dot plot shows significant disagreement over rate cuts in 2025, with industry consensus expecting at most two cuts, possibly not until after September. This means liquidity easing is unlikely in the short term, which is a heavy blow to the crypto market accustomed to liquidity-driven growth.

Second, policy expectations have become unstable. "Data dependence" has gradually become an excuse for flexible adjustments. As long as there are any signs of inflation rebounding, the possibility of restarting rate hikes will resurface. This uncertainty has directly increased market volatility.

Against this backdrop, investment strategies in the crypto space need to be adjusted:

High leverage speculation is extremely risky in an environment of tightening liquidity; spot holdings are the preferred approach. Holding top assets like BTC and ETH has proven their resilience as "digital gold" by 2025, with significantly better anti-dip capabilities than smaller coins. For risk-tolerant investors, deploying small positions in privacy coins and other hedging tracks against policy risks in batches is an option, but chasing highs must be avoided.

Will we see truly loose monetary policy in 2025? That question is left for everyone to judge. Whether to take action now to position in leading assets or continue to observe is up to you. Feel free to share your thoughts in the comments.