Last September, after a new public chain launched its mainnet, the market reaction was astonishing—on the first day, the on-chain stablecoin volume surpassed $7 billion, with about $2.5 billion flooding in within the first hour. This lively scene drew countless eyes and attention.

But reality often hits hard. By January of this year, the native token XPL had fallen about 70% from its all-time high, now oscillating around $0.155, with a market cap stable at $3.2 billion. Behind this stark contrast lies a severe challenge to the long-term viability of its core story: "zero-fee USDT transfers."

Simply put, zero fees essentially mean subsidizing users with money. The logic of this new chain is straightforward: attract a large user base through massive stablecoin flows, then rely on them to engage in DeFi, lending, and other advanced activities on-chain, ultimately generating revenue to cover operational costs. It sounds reasonable, but the question is—can the initial "traffic" truly convert into "value" within the ecosystem?

The reality is harsh. Although the initial funding is impressive, the growth of complex on-chain smart contract interactions and active lending protocols is relatively slow. In other words: large amounts of USDT may just sit there, like dormant assets, with no real vitality, and no substantial financial activity being driven. As a result, the network’s revenue streams are uncertain—what can be used to ensure security and ongoing development?

Facing this dilemma, the chain is taking a two-pronged approach. On one hand, it is extending into the application layer, launching "digital banking" products, attempting to directly reach end users through tangible services like stablecoin-linked bank cards, and further strengthening relationships with mainstream stablecoin issuers. On the other hand, a more urgent issue has emerged—about 25 billion tokens (a quarter of the total supply) are set to unlock around July this year. Whether this wave of releases can be absorbed by the market depends entirely on whether the ecosystem can generate enough genuine demand and applications in the coming months to offset selling pressure.

The competitive environment also leaves no room for respite. Competitors include mature public chains like Ethereum and Solana, as well as dedicated chains led by stablecoin issuers themselves. Zero fees are indeed a sharp entry point, but they are not an insurmountable barrier. How far this chain can go ultimately depends on whether it can build a truly network-effect-driven and irreplaceable financial application ecosystem on a low-cost foundation.