#我的2026第一条帖 From 98,000 to 95,000, Bitcoin surged and then pulled back. How far can the rebound go?

Last night, the weekly initial jobless claims data was below market expectations, indicating that the employment market remains resilient and showing signs of stabilization. At the same time, several Federal Reserve officials signaled a possible pause in rate cuts during their speeches, with a generally hawkish tone, causing market expectations for short-term easing to cool significantly. Against this backdrop, the cryptocurrency market faced short-term pressure and weakened, with Bitcoin continuing its intraday decline, reaching a low of around 95,100 in the early morning; Ethereum also weakened, dropping to around 3,280 in the early morning, essentially erasing the rebound space before the US market opened.
From a macro perspective, the current market still assigns a 95% probability that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged in January. The initial jobless claims data eased concerns about worsening employment and gave the Fed the confidence to maintain its stance.
Additionally, with multiple officials adopting a hawkish stance, short-term liquidity expectations have been suppressed again, risk asset sentiment has cooled, and the crypto market has naturally borne the brunt, entering a phase of retracement and recovery.
On the technical side, Bitcoin's daily chart has shown a bearish candle for the first time after multiple days of consecutive bullish candles, indicating early signs of a potential top; the four-hour MACD has formed a death cross and is beginning to expand below the zero line, RSI has turned downward from the overbought zone, and momentum weakening is quite clear, suggesting that the current move is more of a correction after a rebound rather than a continuation of a strong trend. However, it is important to note that the current price has already fallen back to near the four-hour midline, which may provide some short-term support. The weak volume increase on the hourly chart also shows signs of slowing, implying that a rebound confirmation might occur first before further downward pressure.
In terms of trading strategy, the focus today is on the strength of the rebound. Short-term resistance levels are around the hourly midline at 96,300 and the previous night's rebound high at 97,000, which are typical resistance zones during a rebound; short-term support is near the four-hour midline at 94,800. If this level is broken, the correction space will open further, and the price could retest the previous range upper boundary of 94,000–93,000. This zone is very critical; if it cannot be effectively held, it would mean that this rebound has essentially ended, and the market will revert to the previous consolidation range, continuing a weak correction pattern.
Regarding Ethereum, it appears relatively more stable compared to Bitcoin, but the overall momentum remains weak. Recently, the high-level rebound momentum has significantly weakened, with daily candles closing bearish, and the four-hour MACD weakening simultaneously, indicating a recovery phase after a lack of strength in the rebound. Focus on the support strength around the four-hour midline at 3,270; if this level is broken, the correction will intensify, with support testing the 3,200–3,150 zone. Short-term resistance remains at the rebound highs of 3,370–3,400 over the past two days, which still face heavy selling pressure; until a clear breakout occurs, it should be treated as resistance during the rebound.
Overall, whether it is Bitcoin or Ethereum, both are currently in a macro suppression and technical correction resonance phase, with the overall rhythm leaning toward pressure and recovery rather than trend continuation. It is not advisable to chase long positions; instead, it is better to wait for a second confirmation after the rebound faces resistance or to make decisions based on key support levels' holding or breaking. Tonight, several Federal Reserve officials will speak again, and their statements will continue to influence market expectations for the pace of rate cuts. Short-term sentiment may fluctuate more, so close attention and proper position management are necessary!