#美国就业数据不及预期 Ethereum needs to stay above 3280 to have a chance. Once it falls below, bloodshed may be imminent.

Last night, Ethereum surged to 3400 but couldn't hold, then slipped back to around 3300, repeatedly testing. Now the entire market looks a bit confused, and the 3280 level is crucial—if the bulls can defend it, there’s still hope to push higher; if not, it could head straight down.

From a news perspective, there's some pressure: the new Federal Reserve voting member's speech at the Philadelphia Fed signaled that there are no plans for significant rate cuts in the short term, and inflation control will continue to be tight. Once this was out, the market's expected easing of liquidity was pushed back, and many funds are on the sidelines, with no one daring to go all-in. It’s unlikely for Ethereum to have a breakout rally under these conditions, and overall sentiment remains conservative.

Technically, it looks a bit strained. The middle Bollinger Band is exactly at 3281, aligning with the critical support/resistance line; the resistance above is at 3440, and support below is at 3122. The price is oscillating between these levels. MACD remains above zero but with weakening momentum, indicating a possible pullback; RSI fluctuates between 50-60, showing no clear market sentiment; volume has been lackluster, with no signs of significant increase.

The trading strategy is clear: if 3280 holds, consider a small long position targeting 3350 to 3400; if it breaks down and rebounds are weak, consider shorting with support around 3150-3130. The biggest issue now is the lack of catalysts—if the market remains sideways longer, subsequent volatility could become more intense. I personally prefer waiting for a retest of support before bouncing, as a strong push without confirmation is less likely.

Tonight’s logic is simple: if 3280 holds, bulls stay alive; if it breaks, get out quickly. Remember: the market is always right, and trend is everything. Don’t let emotions drive your decisions. Focus on key levels to catch opportunities amid the volatility.