#我的2026第一条帖 From 98,000 to 95,000: When Can Bitcoin Stabilize After Surge and Pullback?

Last night, the US released stable initial jobless claims data, indicating resilience in the employment market. Meanwhile, several Federal Reserve officials collectively signaled a "hawkish" stance, suggesting that rate cuts may be delayed. Under this dual pressure, risk asset sentiment cooled, and the cryptocurrency market experienced short-term pressure and decline.

Bitcoin briefly dipped to around $95,100 in the early morning, and after a series of bullish days, the daily chart closed with a bearish candle, signaling a short-term top. The 4-hour MACD has formed a death cross and crossed below the zero line, while RSI has fallen from high levels, showing that the rebound momentum has significantly weakened.

Ethereum's trend is similarly weak, falling back to around $3,280 in the early morning, essentially retracing previous gains. The daily chart also closed with a bearish candle, and the 4-hour structure shows a recovery pattern after a weak rebound.

Core Viewpoint: The market has entered a correction phase after the rebound.

Currently, the market has shifted from a "trend upward" to a "pressure correction" rhythm. On the macro level, rate cut expectations have cooled in the short term; technically, multiple indicators show that upward momentum is exhausted. However, this does not mean an immediate trend reversal but rather a phase of oscillation, correction, and testing support.

Key Levels and Trading Ideas

Bitcoin

· Resistance above: 96,300 (hourly midline) → 97,000 (yesterday’s rebound high). Reaching this resistance can be seen as a shorting opportunity.
· Support below: 94,800 (4-hour midline) → 94,000–93,000 (previous range upper boundary). If 94,800 is broken, the correction may deepen.
· Trading suggestion: Observe the rebound strength during the day. If it faces resistance around 96,300–97,000, consider a small short position; if it directly breaks below 94,800, consider a small short targeting below 94,000.

Ethereum

· Resistance above: 3,370–3,400 (recent rebound high zone), where selling pressure is evident.
· Support below: 3,270 (4-hour midline) → 3,200–3,150 (previous support zone).
· Trading suggestion: If the rebound faces resistance at 3,370–3,400, try shorting; if it breaks below 3,270, look towards the 3,200–3,150 zone.

Summary

The market is currently in a window of macro suppression and technical correction resonance, with sentiment leaning cautious. It is advisable to avoid chasing rallies and instead wait for a weakening rebound to short or follow the trend after key support breaks.

Note: Federal Reserve officials will speak again tonight, which may trigger short-term volatility. Please control your positions and strictly adhere to stop-losses.