More than half a month ago, my judgment was quite clear—around December 30th, Ethereum was oscillating around 2920, clearly in a bullish consolidation pattern from a chart structure perspective. Now the price has surged above 3350, and the trend basically aligns with the original outlook. If you followed the logic and held your position back then, congratulations— but honestly, this is not just luck; it’s more about persistence with the trend and the reward for conviction.

Currently, the market is pondering one question: how much further can it go?

My view has not changed: I remain bullish on the medium term, but this process might be more complicated than expected.

I personally see this recent rally as essentially a "warm-up phase." Besides the breakout on the candlestick level, there are two real forces pushing from behind:

**One is that the ETF expectations are not yet fully locked in.** Although news about this has been fluctuating, the actual approval and capital inflow have not yet arrived. The market is just preemptively digesting this "possibility." Once real funds start flowing in, the upside potential will be significantly unlocked.

**The other is ecosystem rotation.** Stories around Layer 2 and re-staking are still attracting capital, and this is no longer just emotional hype; tangible on-chain demand and locked-in funds are evident. Paying attention to Gas fees on the chain reveals that the sudden spikes indicate active interaction and that the enthusiasm is still alive.

Based on these factors, I still believe that the 4500 to 5000 range is a feasible mid-term target. But honestly, this path won’t be smooth sailing. The most critical area to watch closely is the 3450 to 3500 zone. If a pullback occurs, the key is not to break below the 3200 to 3250 support band. Holding this line would keep the trend framework intact.

Let me share my own trading thoughts:

**For those holding positions, you can continue to hold, using active stop-losses to lock in profits, letting the trend’s momentum carry you further.**

**For those who haven't entered yet, avoid chasing the high. Wait for a decent pullback (for example, near 3250 or a trendline), and deploy your positions gradually in multiple steps—this will be more stable and reliable.**

At this stage, don’t think about shorting— you can choose to stay on the sidelines, but going against the trend to try to top out is a risk-reward mismatch.

Markets change daily, but once a trend is established, opportunities for easy reversals are rare. In such market conditions, the secret to making money is not just about picking the right direction, but also having the courage to hold on.