🔔Tonight at 21:30, focus on the US December CPI data release🔥🔥🔥. The core impact pathway is CPI→Federal Reserve policy expectations→liquidity→cryptocurrency prices. The volatility of mainstream coins will be more direct, with BTC/ETH serving as the weather vane influence.

Core scenarios and responses

- CPI < expectations (positive): Increased expectations of rate cuts, weakening dollar, and easing liquidity expectations. Risk assets like BTC/ETH are likely to strengthen and may break through the range; watch for support at BTC 91,000 USDT and ETH 3,100 USDT. Breakouts can be followed, and gradual position building is advised without chasing highs.

- CPI > expectations (negative): Worsening tightening concerns, potential rise in the dollar and US bond yields, short-term pressure on cryptocurrencies leading to a correction; prioritize observation, wait for key support levels before taking action, and avoid fighting the trend.

- CPI in line with expectations: The market is likely to remain volatile, with mainstream coins consolidating within recent ranges; if core CPI is stronger than expected, a short-term correction may still occur, so monitor position sizes carefully.

Operational and risk control points

1. Rhythm: Mainly observe before the data release; after the data, wait 30 minutes for market sentiment to digest before acting, avoiding the "first wave" of extreme volatility and leverage liquidations.

2. Positioning: Single-sided positions ≤30%; reserve funds to handle volatility; high-leverage users should reduce leverage first to prevent liquidation.

3. Risk control: Set stop-loss orders (e.g., if BTC drops below 91,000 or ETH below 3,100, reduce positions decisively), take profits in batches, and avoid stubborn holding.

4. Coordination: Keep an eye on subsequent speeches by Federal Reserve officials; secondary interpretations of policy expectations may amplify or reverse the market trend.

Conclusion: Tonight's CPI is a short-term "decider"; expectations differences determine the direction of volatility. Proper risk management and following signals are more reliable. If you have questions, please stay tuned and contact me for insights.