#Gate广场创作者新春激励 Storm in Silence! Bitcoin swings within a wide range, surpassing 90,000—is this the calm before the storm or a trend reversal point?

The current market is dominated by two major conflicting forces: external macro policy uncertainties and internal structural changes in funds.
1. Macro Policies: Two major “uncertainties” loom, market remains cautious
● The impact of last Friday’s non-farm payroll data has been absorbed by the market, but new uncertainties are accumulating:
The U.S. Supreme Court’s tariff ruling remains pending: The Supreme Court decision on the legality of former President Trump’s global tariffs, originally scheduled for January 9, has been postponed. This ruling, which could involve over hundreds of billions of dollars in funds, is creating uncertainty that directly causes large capital to hold back, leading to a “pause-like” market stagnation.
● Federal Reserve policy path and leadership changes: Stronger-than-expected U.S. economic data have reduced market expectations of aggressive rate cuts in March, putting short-term pressure on risk assets. Meanwhile, discussions about the next Fed chair add further uncertainty to policy outlooks.
2. Market Internal Dynamics: ETF fund outflows and cautious institutional sentiment at the start of the year highlight a concerning liquidity trend. Data shows that U.S. spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs experienced over $1 billion in net outflows in early 2026. This reversed the brief inflow trend seen in early January, indicating some institutional funds are taking profits or remaining cautious after price rebounds, exerting direct liquidity pressure on the market’s upward movement.
3. Long-term Perspective: Diverging opinions amid volatility, with institutional views split. On one hand, research heads from firms like CoinShares believe that strong macroeconomic data have delayed rate cuts, exerting short-term downward pressure on prices. On the other hand, some analysts think that selling pressure caused by tax-related sell-offs and index exclusions has largely been exhausted, and market structure is becoming healthier. More optimistic views suggest that once Bitcoin clearly breaks through the psychological threshold of $95,000, systemic buying will re-enter, opening the door to six-figure prices.
From a technical standpoint, $90,000 (BTC) and $3,100 (ETH) have become the battlegrounds at the start of this week, and their gains or losses will determine whether the current box range will evolve into a one-sided trend. From a news perspective, policy vacuum and capital outflows form a double suppression, but the market is also digesting these negatives. Given the current high uncertainty, operational points are: 1. Reduce trading frequency and improve position quality: In a choppy market, frequent trading can lead to losses on both sides. Minimize unnecessary opening of positions and focus on observing key support and resistance levels. 2. Adopt a “two-pronged” contingency plan: Don’t insist on predicting the direction. Plan ahead: how to add positions if volume breaks above the box top; how to cut losses or reverse if it breaks below the box bottom. Then, let the market find its own direction. 3. Emphasize risk management and monitor on-chain anomalies: Especially for Ethereum, incorporate short-term overheating risks revealed by on-chain data into decision-making. Better to miss a potential rebound than to fall into a deep correction that may come. 4. Keep sufficient cash reserves and wait for the golden entry point: Before major policy uncertainties (tariff rulings, Fed movements) are resolved, maintaining ample “ammunition” is crucial. True trend opportunities often only become clear after uncertainties are eliminated.