There's an elder in the circle who entered the market in 2017, experienced countless bull and bear cycles, and turned 500,000 yuan of principal into an eight-figure asset. He never participates in various communities, doesn't follow hot trends, stays away from leverage, yet relies on a seemingly clumsy method to become a true long-term winner. Recently, I had the chance to ask him for advice, and he shared five core rules that are more effective than any technical analysis.

**Rule 1: The gentler the trend, the longer the cycle**

He often says: "Good market conditions are like climbing a slope—tiring but steady; bad market conditions are like bungee jumping—exciting but deadly." In other words, those days in Bitcoin's early days with monthly fluctuations of only 10%-20% may seem insignificant, but over three years, the gains can double; meanwhile, altcoins that double in a day can be halved the next day. His understanding is simple: slow rises and small dips indicate genuine accumulation of funds; sharp rises and falls are just short-term capital fighting each other. Once he sees the trend become as chaotic as an electrocardiogram, he starts reducing his holdings and never plays along with these crazies.

**Rule 2: When the hype is loud, retreat even faster**

He used a brilliant analogy to distinguish between good projects and scams: "Real projects are like old Chinese medicine doctors—small shops but with long queues; fake projects are like TV shopping—loudspeakers shouting about fake medicines." Some public chains quietly develop technology and now form the industry's infrastructure; some coins spend money hiring celebrities and have communities shouting "buy low, get rich" 24/7. The conclusion is that they can't survive a full cycle. His standard is very strict: as long as it involves "referral rebates,"