2026-01-11 12:20:34

As a seasoned veteran in the crypto space, I want to pour some cold water on everyone.

Whether trading contracts or spot, relying solely on macroeconomic theories simply won't cut it in this market. The crypto market is virtual, with news and data being half-truths and half-falsehoods. Using these to judge the market direction often leads to failure. You can look at them to gauge market sentiment, but never rely on them as the core basis for analysis.

I've gone from A-shares, funds, and forex to the crypto world, and only the crypto market is the most bizarre — it can be linked to the US dollar, also tied to US stocks, with no clear pattern in its movements, and there’s no bottom line for cutting chives. Large volatility means big opportunities; if you get the direction right, you can make fat profits, but if you get it wrong, you’ll be wiped out instantly.

Real cases are right in front of us. The black swan on October 10 saw BTC plunge to 22,000, ETH dropped over 950 points, and altcoins were cut in half. In such a market, whether spot or contract trading, a wrong judgment is disaster. What’s my strategy? I started gradually selling spot holdings on October 3, traded contracts for swings, and finally shorted at the top on October 10 to catch the profit, then went long at the bottom. How did it turn out? I caught all of it. These results come from indicator analysis, not from news or data.

And then there was the rate cut on September 18. Many people saw the rate cut as a positive signal and chased longs at high levels or held on stubbornly. And what happened? They all got trapped. Why? Because they believed in macro logic but ignored technical signals in the market.

I don’t deny the value of macro theories, but to survive and succeed in the crypto world, you must establish a trading system based on indicator analysis. The era where pigs could climb trees is long gone — stop dreaming.

Finally, I want to emphasize one point: beginners should never join those chat groups. The people in those groups are of uneven skill levels, some might be just as inexperienced as you, and some could even be shills setting traps for you. The most important thing for beginners is to calm down, understand the market, learn some technical analysis, and only then consider entering the market.

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fren.eth

· 01-14 12:05

It sounds reasonable, but I still think indicators can also be misleading... It's true that it's harsh, but take the example of the 918 rate cut; there was no early warning from technical analysis either. Wow, you're better at talking than trading. Did you really catch everything on October 10th? How can you prove it? Damn, that's why I don't do anything right now. I'll wait until the market cools down before acting. The newbie group chat is indeed a trap, but there are plenty of tutorial videos. Do you really need to be so cautious? Indicators, changing the cycle means a different set of theories. It sounds nice but is not necessarily true. I agree, too many people are chasing highs, and they really think they understand K-line charts. I just want to ask, are you holding positions now? Or are you all in cash waiting? The contract trading style is too easy to get addicted to. From your tone, it seems you've made a lot of money.

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JustAnotherWallet

· 01-14 11:38

Wow, this guy's story about the 918 wave really hit home. I've also been trapped before. --- Indicator analysis saved my life; the news sentiment really does more harm than good. --- That's right, in those chat groups, eight out of ten people want to cut you. --- On October 10th, I got liquidated during that black swan event. Looking back at this article, I really regret it. --- The key is to have your own trading system; otherwise, no matter how smart you are, it's useless. --- It feels like this guy is just showing off, but his logic is indeed solid. --- The most heartbreaking thing in the crypto world is that you never know what will happen in the next second. --- Getting cut after joining a newbie group has become routine; it's better to do your own research and find a reliable approach.

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4am_degen

· 01-12 20:45

Nothing wrong with that, but technical analysis is the hard currency; news sentiment is all虚的. The indicator analysis system can indeed be life-saving; macro logic is really misleading. I also got caught in the wave on 9/18, now I’m dead set on K-line charts. What exactly are those in the group? Still better to figure it out myself. I reacted slowly during the wave on October 10, saw you eating meat, next time I must be faster. Macro theory in the crypto world is just a joke, purely self-deception. Newbies, listen to me, don’t rush into the market, learn technical analysis for three months first. This is the truth of the crypto world, there are no shortcuts, only shortcuts. Swing trading depends on indicators, not these真假消息. Bro, I agree with this approach, but practical operation still involves踩坑.

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RetroHodler91

· 01-12 10:59

That's right, those who boast in the group every day are really out of line. When the market comes, there's no need to fuss over macro data; just look at the candlestick charts for the actual situation. I also got burned during the 918 wave, now I only trust the indicators.

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SocialFiQueen

· 01-11 12:50

To be honest, that guy's example of the 918 rate cut really hit me. At the time, I saw a bunch of people in the group getting trapped and stuck. On the technical side, I’ve also gradually understood that indicators can be misleading, but it’s still better than being cut by news and rumors. However, with this kind of contract swing trading, one mistake and it’s gone. You still have to be cautious. Whenever I post something like this, people always ask me what I think, but I think the most important thing to say is—there’s no secret, just don’t be greedy. Indeed, I’ve seen too many of those new trader groups, and most of them are traps. The idea of making quick money is deadly; it’s more reliable to learn technical analysis steadily. I didn’t react to the October wave, and I lost passively. Now I’m just trying to double up to recover my losses. This guy is right, but most people simply can’t discipline themselves.

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GasFeeCryBaby

· 01-11 12:49

This guy is not wrong; technical analysis is the real king, and the macro approach is pure nonsense in the crypto world. Alright everyone, here comes another big shot who claims to have "eaten it all." The 918 wave was indeed fierce, but indicators can be misleading quite often, haha. Newbies, stay out of groups—I've seen so many people get wrecked and doubt their lives. Indicator analysis sounds simple, but actually mastering it is another story, right? The crypto world is just another name for gambling; no one should boast. This brother's case sounds comfortable, but can it be replicated? That's the real question. Exactly, the news side is like second-hand housing sales—full of tricks. Technical analysis indeed has a high win rate, but controlling the mindset is the hardest part. That makes sense, but I still blew up my position before; indicators are not a silver bullet either.

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FrogInTheWell

· 01-11 12:47

Indicator analysis is indeed important, but I think the harder part is mindset. You also have to resist when you see the right direction. --- I also got caught in that wave of 918, learned what it means for technical analysis to be the real boss. --- Wait, you already sold your spot on October 3rd? Feels like you’re pretty bold. I’m still debating whether to add to my position. --- That last piece of advice telling newbies not to join the group, I totally agree. Really, 99% of the discussions in the group are just pipe dreams. --- It sounds good to say it's indicator analysis, but honestly, it’s just feeling out the waves. Who can really catch every move? --- This theory sounds impressive, but it's easy to review, hard to replicate, brother. --- The crypto world is just an upgraded version of a casino. Both technical and macro aspects are just smokescreens; luck accounts for seventy percent.

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RugPullSurvivor

· 01-11 12:46

That's right, it all depends on indicators for trading; the news-based approach is really easy to get cut. After doing this for years, I finally understand that the crypto world is gambling, and technical analysis is the real key. The wave on 918 was indeed brutal; a bunch of people around me chased the high and got trapped, serves them right. Newbies joining the group are just looking for trouble, mostly scammers and amateurs. Analyzing indicators and patterns requires time and effort to master. Macro logic is basically useless here; it's all about reading candlesticks and volume. During the black swan event in October, those who didn't position for shorting all got wiped out. In the end, it's just four words: staying alive is the most important.

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MidsommarWallet

· 01-11 12:43

To be honest, indicator analysis is indeed reliable, but I found a problem—sometimes technical analysis can also be misleading. This guy speaks about the crypto world too absolutely, it feels a bit self-congratulatory. That October dip was really tough, but I see some people survived purely by luck. Does macro theory really have no use at all? I think it still needs to be combined with other methods. I agree with the discussion group part, there are indeed many scammers, but there are also genuine experts. This set of theories sounds great, but in practice, it's not that simple. I just want to ask, how exactly do you use indicator analysis? Can you explain the details? Newbies definitely need to be cautious, but don’t be scared away.

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TheShibaWhisperer

· 01-11 12:27

The reasoning is sound, it's just that people who are tired of those macro narratives are still chasing the highs and selling the lows. Relying on indicators to make profits, relying on news to get cut, this is a painful lesson. However, I was also caught during the 918 event, and now I'm a bit afraid to believe any good news haha. Technical analysis is the way to go, I agree with that, but indicators are not foolproof, sometimes they can also deceive you. Joining chat groups and chatting is just asking to be cut, this point is spot on. Compared to macro theories, I believe candlestick patterns speak louder. All those who are resetting are listening to news, no problem.

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