From the 1-hour K-line chart, there are several noteworthy details about Ethereum's recent trend. First, regarding technical analysis—the surge toward $3100 last week seemed powerful, but in reality, it didn't even reach the short-term resistance at $3150 before pulling back, leaving a clear upper shadow. Interestingly, trading volume showed a contrast: volume shrank during the rise, while it significantly increased during the decline. This divergence between price and volume often reflects a change in market participants' attitudes.

On-chain data offers another perspective. According to on-chain tracking data, Ethereum outflows last week amounted to $555 million, mainly from the US market. Meanwhile, ETH holdings across exchanges are at a historic low. However, this indicator should be viewed dialectically—an increase in whale holdings does not necessarily mean there won't be short-term sell-offs; for example, Bitmine added over 40,000 ETH positions last week.

The macro environment is also complex. The clear delay in the launch of the legislation and the EU DAC8 directive coming into effect mean regulatory uncertainty still exists. Coupled with recent geopolitical changes, global risk appetite has declined, and some institutions may prioritize more liquid and less volatile assets. In comparison, high-volatility assets like Ethereum are indeed facing some selling pressure at this time. How the subsequent market will develop depends on whether these technical, capital, and policy signals can align.