#BTC价格波动 The $23.6 billion options settlement. When faced with this number, what flashes through my mind are the moments from the past decade during similar milestones. The frenzy of the 2017 bull market, the spike in May 2021, including the turbulence before and after the FTX collapse last year—every time large-scale options expire, the market undergoes a "funding structure vacuum period."

What’s different this time is that the scale has broken records. The total of BTC and ETH options at $28.5 billion is twice that of the same period last year. Market makers need to unwind their hedging positions, and the support and resistance levels maintained by the options structure will temporarily lose their effectiveness, inevitably amplifying volatility. This is the market’s destiny and an inevitable outcome dictated by the mechanism.

But there’s a detail worth pondering—currently, there’s a bullish divergence signal in the "price and capital inflow gradient." In the past 2021-2022, whenever this signal appeared, BTC experienced rebounds or even trend reversals. Capital outflow was relatively moderate, indicating that selling pressure isn’t as fierce as imagined.

If BTC truly retraces to the $80,000–$82,000 range, it could be an opportunity for a short-term rebound. However, the current market sentiment is still in the recovery phase, and the probability of a sharp speculative reversal is low; a rebound is more likely. The key is not to be scared out by short-term volatility—at such times, it’s often a test of one’s understanding of historical cycles and mental resilience.