#美国贸易赤字状况 Tonight at 11 PM, the asset markets once again "dangerously" stabilize

Here's an interesting phenomenon: the market is not really waiting for answers, but waiting to see "who dares to move first."

The performance of the US stock market yesterday best illustrates the point—Dow Jones rose slightly by 0.55%, Nasdaq reversed and fell by 0.44%, and the S&P 500 was basically flat. The inconsistency in gains and losses appears to be disagreement on the surface, but in reality, it’s collective avoidance. No one wants to bet on a particular direction alone; everyone is pretending not to see. This operational mode will influence the follow-up logic of other assets, and the original correlations may be broken.

Here's the interesting part. After 11 PM last night (a time increasingly becoming magical), US stock futures, gold, silver, and $BTC suddenly experienced a small rebound. It seems the selling pressure did not turn into a stampede, and the market took a breath. But there’s a detail— the US dollar and Treasury yields only retraced a little, still holding near intraday highs. In other words, the rebound is a rebound, but the "truly influential variables" did not follow suit. This kind of rebound is more like technical self-repair in the market rather than a genuine shift in sentiment.

What’s most heartbreaking now is not whether it’s up or down, but that volatility is extremely stable—volatility in both the stock and bond markets has been suppressed to very low levels. When a risk event is imminent, everyone is locking in volatility tightly. Historically, this situation has almost only occurred in one scenario: everyone pretending "I don’t know what will happen." All assets are stuck at a strange equilibrium: afraid to chase higher, afraid to sell lower. They simply use low volatility to buy time—but there’s no such thing as a free lunch.

A turning point is coming. Tonight, the US will release December non-farm payroll data, and the Supreme Court will rule on the legality of Trump’s tariffs. At such a juncture, can the market continue to maintain the strange combination of "high uncertainty + low volatility"?

Two possible scenarios: if the non-farm data is positive but volatility remains low, that would be truly dangerous— the market might fall into a collective self-hypnosis; if the data is weak, it could trigger a surge in volatility, which would be a normal risk release. As for the tariffs, if the Supreme Court curtails Trump, then "the tariffs already collected might have to be refunded," causing Treasury yields to spike again, and the uncertainty around tariffs itself would intensify. Conversely, if Trump is supported, the market will have to realize that— tariffs have become a "policy sword that can be pulled out and used at any time."

$ETH $XRP Everyone is watching this show.